Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg Prediction

Look, I'll be honest with you — this one's got the smell of a home win for the works. Bayer Leverkusen at home against SC Freiburg, and the numbers don't lie.

Leverkusen's home record over the last 20 games is 12 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses. They're averaging 2.2 goals a game at home and conceding just 0.85. Ten clean sheets in 20 home games. That's a team that shuts the door when it's at home. And they're coming off a run of four straight wins — 12 goals scored, 3 conceded. The 4-0 away at Lech Poznan on 15 October and the 4-3 at Mainz on 10 October show they've got the legs and the edge. At home, the 2-0 over RB Leipzig on 20 September and the 2-0 over Celje on 16 September kept that door locked.

Now look at what SC Freiburg bring to the table on the road. Their away record over 20 games is 7 wins, 4 draws, 9 losses. They're averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per away game. Only 3 clean sheets in 20. That's a team that struggles on the road, and it's not a new story. The 2-2 draw at Eintracht Frankfurt on 19 September was their most recent away outing, and it showed the fragility.

The head-to-head at this venue in the last 12 months tells the tale too. Leverkusen beat Freiburg 2-0 here on 26 October 2025. The reverse fixture at Freiburg's ground was a 3-3 draw on 7 March 2026. So the home side have the edge at this specific ground in recent memory.

Now, I'll give Freiburg credit. They're flying. Nine wins, one draw, no losses in their last 10. They've scored 33 goals in that stretch. The 5-0 over Gladbach, the 4-2 over Luzern, the 3-2 over Jablonec — they're scoring in bunches. And they've got 4 of their last 5 as both-teams-to-score yes. So don't sleep on them. They're not a team that just turns up and folds.

But here's the thing — those 9 wins in 10 include friendlies and European competition. The away record is the real test, and that's 7W 4D 9L. The xG numbers back it up too: Freiburg's xG against in their last 3 games with data is 0.66 per game, meaning opponents are only creating a fraction of a goal against them in those matches. Leverkusen's xG for is 2.7 per game across their last 4 games with data, which is a different level of threat.

The market's pricing Leverkusen at 1.76 for the win, which implies about 57%. I rate this at around 61%. The home record, the recent form, the H2H at this ground — it all points the same way. I think the price is a touch short.

Key Points:

• Bayer Leverkusen: 12W 5D 3L in 20 home games, 10 clean sheets, 0.85 conceded per game

• SC Freiburg: 7W 4D 9L in 20 away games, 1.55 conceded per game

• Leverkusen won their last 4 (12 scored, 3 conceded)

• Recent H2H at this venue: Leverkusen 2-0 (26 October 2025)

• Freiburg's 9W in 10 includes friendlies and European fixtures

I'm going with the Bayer Leverkusen home win.