Preview
Bayer Leverkusen's home record is the story here. Twelve wins, five draws and three losses in their last 20 home games, with 2.2 goals scored per game and 0.85 conceded. They kept a clean sheet in 10 of those 20. SC Freiburg's away record over the same 20-game span tells a very different tale: 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses, scoring 1.35 per game and conceding 1.55. The gap between these two sets of numbers is the foundation of this bet.
The head-to-head at this venue adds weight. The most recent meeting here, on 26 October 2025, was a 2–0 Bayer Leverkusen win. The other recent meeting, at Freiburg's ground in March 2026, was a 3–3 draw. No away victory in the last two meetings at both venues.
Leverkusen's recent form is in gear. They have won their last four matches, scoring 12 and conceding 3 in that stretch. The 4–0 away win at Lech Poznan on 15 October and the 4–3 win at Mainz on 10 October show a side scoring freely. At home, the 2–0 wins over RB Leipzig and Celje in September kept the pattern consistent.
The counter-argument is Freiburg's run. Nine wins, one draw and no losses in their last 10 games, with 3.3 goals scored per game. That is a hot stretch. But look at where those wins came from. All four wins in their last five were at home – 3–2 against Jablonec, 2–1 against Schalke, 4–2 against Luzern, and 5–0 against Mönchengladbach. The only away result was a 2–2 draw at Eintracht Frankfurt on 19 September. Their 20-game away record of 7 wins and 9 losses is the real benchmark, and it does not support the recent run translating to this fixture.
The market has Bayer Leverkusen at 1.76, implying a 56.82% chance. My reading of the home record, the away record, the head-to-head and the form split puts Leverkusen's chance closer to 63%. That is a real edge, and it is the kind of mispricing I live for.
Key Points:
- Bayer Leverkusen: 12W 5D 3L in 20 home games; 2.2 scored, 0.85 conceded per game
- SC Freiburg: 7W 4D 9L in 20 away games; 1.35 scored, 1.55 conceded per game
- Recent H2H at this venue: 2–0 Bayer Leverkusen win (26 October 2025)
- Leverkusen won their last 4 matches (12 scored, 3 conceded)
- Freiburg's 9 wins in 10 games are heavily weighted toward home results
Verdict: I'm backing the Bayer Leverkusen home win at 1.76.
