Bradford sit comfortably in their own numbers when it comes to home football. Over their last 20 home games, they have won 11, drawn 5 and lost 4, averaging 1.9 points per game. Their home defence has been the standout feature: 0.65 goals conceded per game and 10 clean sheets in 20 matches. That is a record that speaks for itself, and it is the foundation of any case for Bradford in this fixture.
Stevenage, by contrast, travel with a far less convincing away record. Across 20 away games, they have won 5, drawn 5 and lost 10, averaging just 1.0 points per game. They concede 1.5 goals per game on the road and have kept only 5 clean sheets in 20 attempts. The gap between Bradford's home numbers and Stevenage's away numbers is the single most telling statistic in this fixture, and it points clearly in one direction.
Bradford's recent form is solid. In their last five matches they have won three and drawn two without a defeat, scoring 8 and conceding just 2. Their only blemish is the 0-0 draw at home against Leyton Orient on 10 October, which left them without a goal for the first time in that stretch. Stevenage, meanwhile, are on a three-game winning run, scoring 9 and conceding 2 in those matches. Their last five results read 4W 0D 1L, and they have scored 11 goals in that span. That is a run that demands respect.
The counter-argument is real and I will not pretend otherwise. Stevenage's recent form is the best of any team in this preview, and their three-game winning run has been built on strong performances, including a 6-1 away win at Walsall and a 2-1 home win over Leicester. The head-to-head at Bradford's ground within the last 12 months ended 0-1 to Stevenage on 11 April 2026. That is a result that cannot be ignored. The older meetings at this venue — a 3-0 Bradford win in 2022 — are historical record only and do not carry the same weight as the recent meeting.
Bradford's home games have been low-scoring. Fifteen of their last 20 home games finished under 2.5 goals. Stevenage's away games are split evenly: 10 over, 10 under. Bradford's home record on both teams to score is 12 no out of 20, while Stevenage's away record is 9 no out of 20. The evidence points toward a tight, low-scoring affair, but the margin is not large enough to call it a certainty.
Key Points:
- Bradford's home record: 11W 5D 4L over 20 games, 0.65 conceded per game, 10 clean sheets
- Stevenage's away record: 5W 5D 10L over 20 games, 1.5 conceded per game, 5 clean sheets
- Stevenage are on a three-game winning run (scored 9, conceded 2)
- The most recent meeting at Bradford's ground ended 0-1 to Stevenage on 11 April 2026
- 15 of Bradford's last 20 home games finished under 2.5 goals
The numbers favour Bradford at home, and Stevenage's away record is poor, but the recent head-to-head result and Stevenage's current run mean I cannot call this a certainty. If it's not certain, it's not happening. No Bet.
