Celta Vigo host Alaves at their ground on 18 October in La Liga, and the numbers at this venue tell a story of a team that should be comfortable. Across 20 home games, Celta Vigo have won 8, drawn 3 and lost 9, averaging 1.35 points per game and 1.6 goals scored per game. They have failed to score in only 2 of those 20 home matches and kept a clean sheet in 6. Alaves, by contrast, have won just 5 of their 20 away games, averaging 1.05 points per game and 1.2 goals scored per game, while conceding 1.55 per game. The home record is the single clearest edge in this fixture.
The head-to-head at Celta Vigo's ground in the recent meeting on 22 March 2026 ended 3–4 to Alaves, so the hosts are not guaranteed a comfortable afternoon. That game was a high-scoring affair with both teams creating chances — Celta Vigo's xG was 1.82 and Alaves' was 1.73. The reverse venue meeting on 22 November 2025 saw Celta Vigo win 1–0 at Alaves' ground. Both recent meetings produced goals, and the older meetings at Celta's ground (2–1 in August 2024) also saw the hosts score. The pattern at this venue leans towards goals being shared.
The counter-argument is the recent form of both sides, and it is uncomfortable. Celta Vigo have won just 1 of their last 5 matches (1W 2D 2L), losing 1–2 to Juventus at home on 15 October and drawing 0–0 at Elche on 11 October. Their xG against in recent matches with data stands at 1.34 per game, which suggests they are conceding more than the scoreline might indicate. Alaves are no better: 1W 1D 3L in their last 5, including a 1–2 defeat to Atletico Madrid on 10 October where they received a red card in the 61st minute. However, over the last 10 games across all venues, Alaves have recorded 4W 3D 3L at 1.5 points per game, which is noticeably better than Celta Vigo's 1W 5D 4L at 0.8 points per game. Alaves have also scored 1.6 goals per game in that stretch, compared to Celta Vigo's 0.9.
The goal market is split. Celta Vigo's home record shows 13 of 20 games going over 2.5 goals, but their last 5 matches have produced under 2.5 in 3 of 5. Alaves' away record is 10 over and 10 under in 20 games. Both teams' last 10 games show a lean towards under 2.5: Celta Vigo 7 under, Alaves 5 under. Both teams to score has been yes in 12 of 20 home games for Celta Vigo and 12 of 20 away games for Alaves, but in the last 5 matches, Celta Vigo have had BTTS no in 3 of 5 and Alaves in 2 of 5.
Key Points:
- Celta Vigo's home record: 8W 3D 9L in 20 games, 1.6 goals scored per game, 1.45 conceded per game
- Alaves' away record: 5W 6D 9L in 20 games, 1.2 goals scored per game, 1.55 conceded per game
- Both teams in poor recent form: Celta Vigo 1W 2D 2L, Alaves 1W 1D 3L in last 5
- Recent head-to-head at Celta's ground: 3–4 loss for Celta Vigo (22 March 2026)
- Celta Vigo's xG against in recent matches: 1.34 per game, suggesting defensive vulnerability
The home record gives Celta Vigo a genuine edge, but the recent form of both sides and the defensive concerns in Celta Vigo's xG data make this a fixture where I cannot find a price I would stake on with the confidence I require. The available prices do not offer a recommendation I can stand behind. No Bet.
