Cordoba vs Eibar Prediction

Cordoba vs Eibar, Segunda División, 24 October 2026. Right, let's have a proper chat about this one, shall we?

Cordoba are at home, but if you've been following their numbers, this is a tough one for them. Their home record over 20 games at their ground is 8 wins, 4 draws, 8 losses — that's a 40% win rate, and they've conceded 1.5 goals per game. In their last five matches, they've picked up 3 wins and 2 losses, but the losses have been ugly: 1-3 at Valladolid and 1-2 at Eldense. Their only clean sheet in that stretch came in the 1-0 win at Leganes eight days ago. So they've got a bit of life in them, but the defence is leaking.

Now look at Eibar on the road. Over 20 away games, they've won 10, drawn 6 and lost just 4. That's 1.8 points per game, and they've conceded only 0.75 per game with 10 clean sheets in those 20 trips. In their last ten matches across all grounds, Eibar have won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 — 2.2 points per game. That's a team that's clicking, mate. They've won 3 of their last 5, and the only blemish is that 1-3 loss at Oviedo 12 days ago.

The head-to-head at this venue in the last 12 months was a 0-0 draw back in December 2025. The other recent meeting, back in May, saw Eibar win 2-0 at their own ground. So the last two times these two have met, Eibar have either kept a clean sheet or drawn blank. That's a pattern worth noting.

Now, the counter-argument, because I'm not a one-note tipster. Cordoba did win their last game, 1-0 at Leganes, and they've scored in all five of their last matches. Eibar's last outing was a 1-1 draw at home to Mallorca, and that 0-0 at this ground last time shows Cordoba can park the bus and frustrate you. So it's not like Eibar are invincible — they've had a wobble, and Cordoba can be stubborn at home.

But the numbers don't lie. Eibar's away defence is the standout here — 0.75 conceded per game, 10 clean sheets in 20 away trips. Cordoba's home defence is leaking at 1.5 per game. That's a big gap, and it's the kind of thing that wins you a 3.23 price when the market's only pricing you at about 31%.

Key Points:

• Eibar's away record: 10W 6D 4L in 20 games, 0.75 conceded per game, 10 clean sheets

• Cordoba's home record: 8W 4D 8L in 20 games, 1.5 conceded per game

• Eibar's last 10: 7W 1D 2L (2.2 ppg); Cordoba's last 10: 4W 0D 6L (1.2 ppg)

• H2H at this venue (last 12 months): 0-0 draw; other recent meeting: Eibar 2-0

• Eibar have won 3 of their last 5; Cordoba have won 3 but lost 2

My verdict: I'm going with the Eibar away win at 3.23. The market's pricing them at about 31%, but the numbers say they're the stronger side on the road, and I'd put their chance closer to 35 or 36%. That's value, and that's what we're here for.