Preview
Deportivo La Coruna host Levante on 16 October, and the numbers at this ground tell a story that doesn't need much embellishment.
Over their last 20 home games, Deportivo La Coruna have won 9, drawn 4 and lost 7, averaging 1.55 points per game. They score 1.25 per game at home and concede 1.1. Now look at Levante's away record over 20 games: 4 wins, 4 draws, 12 losses. That's 0.8 points per game, 0.8 goals scored and 1.65 conceded. The gap between these two sets of numbers is the single most important thing in this fixture.
Levante fail to score in 11 of their 20 away games. Deportivo La Coruna fail to score in just 5 of 20 at home. On the other side of the pitch, Deportivo concede 1.1 per game at home while Levante concede 1.65 away. The matchup table leaves no ambiguity: the home side is the stronger proposition on most of the numbers that matter.
The counter-argument is Deportivo's recent form. They have won none of their last five matches, losing the last two — a 3–2 defeat at Real Sociedad on 11 October and a 1–3 loss to FC Porto at home on 2 October. That's 3 goals scored and 6 conceded in those two games. It's a concerning stretch, and it's fair to ask whether the home record is about to wobble.
But context matters. The Porto game was a friendly, and the Sevilla loss on 16 September came with a red card in the 59th minute. The 20-game home record is a far more reliable yardstick than a five-game sample that includes a friendly and a disrupted match. Meanwhile, Levante's last five games — 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses — include a 5–2 win over Real Betis and a 3–3 draw with Sevilla, but their away record of 12 losses in 20 games is the real story.
The head-to-head is dated. There have been no meetings between these two sides within the last 12 months. The five older meetings, spanning from 2016 to 2025, show Levante winning 2, Deportivo winning 1 and 2 draws. At this ground specifically, the three older meetings produced 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss for the hosts. That's historical record, not current form, and I'd lean on the venue numbers instead.
Key Points:
- Deportivo La Coruna's 20-game home record: 9W 4D 7L, 1.55 ppg, 1.25 scored, 1.1 conceded
- Levante's 20-game away record: 4W 4D 12L, 0.8 ppg, 0.8 scored, 1.65 conceded
- Levante fail to score in 11 of 20 away games; Deportivo fail to score in 5 of 20 at home
- Deportivo have won none of their last 5 matches, losing the last 2
- Head-to-head is historical only — no meetings within 12 months
The 20-game venue records are the strongest evidence in this fixture, and they point firmly to the home side. I rate Deportivo La Coruna's chance of winning at around 48%, which sits above the market's 46.08% implied probability on the 2.17 price. That's a small but real edge, and in this game, small edges are what you build a bankroll on.
My pick: home win.
