Deportivo La Coruna vs Levante Prediction

The force is strong with this one, I tell you. Deportivo La Coruna and Levante meet at the Riazor on 16 October, and the numbers whisper a tale of goals yet to come.

Deportivo's home record over their last 20 games at this ground tells a story of a team that scores and holds its own: 9 wins, 4 draws, 7 losses, with 1.25 goals per game and just 1.1 conceded. That is a solid foundation, even if the recent form has been... let us say, less than ideal. Their last five matches have yielded 0 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses, and they have lost their last two, conceding 6 goals in those games. The 0–1 to Sevilla and the 1–3 to FC Porto at home stung, and the 2–3 defeat at Real Sociedad five days ago left a bitter taste. Still, the home record speaks louder than the last two weeks, and the Riazor has been a place where goals flow — 12 of those 20 home games saw both teams find the net.

Levante, meanwhile, arrive with a different rhythm. Their last five matches produced 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses, but the scoring has been wild: 11 goals for, 12 against, averaging 2.2 and 2.4 per game. The 3–3 draw with Sevilla four days ago, the 5–2 demolition of Real Betis, the 2–4 loss to Barcelona — these are games where the net shakes. Four of their last five matches went over 2.5 goals, and seven of their last ten did the same. Their xG figures of 1.45 per game for and 1.57 against paint a picture of a team that both creates and concedes in abundance.

Now, the counter-argument, for I must be fair. Levante's away record over 20 games is a grim one: 4 wins, 4 draws, 12 losses, 0.8 points per game. They score just 0.8 per game on the road and concede 1.65. That is a team that struggles far from home, and the head-to-head, while entirely historical — no meetings within the last 12 months — shows that at this ground, the older record is 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss for the hosts. The contrast between Levante's recent form and their away record is stark, and it gives Deportivo a genuine platform to build upon.

Yet the xG data and the high-scoring nature of recent matches both point toward a match where the total crosses the line. Levante's recent games have been goal-festivals, and the combined expected goals from both sides' xG figures suggest a total in the neighbourhood of three. The market prices over 2.5 at 1.98, implying just over 50 per cent. My own reading of the evidence — Levante's 4-of-5 over in recent matches, the elevated scoring in those games, the xG figures — tips the balance just past that mark. I rate the chance of three or more goals at roughly 53 per cent, a slight edge over the market's view.

Key Points:

• Deportivo La Coruna's home record: 9W 4D 7L in 20 games, 1.25 scored and 1.1 conceded per game

• Levante's last 5 matches: 4 of 5 went over 2.5 goals; 7 of their last 10 did

• Levante's away record is poor: 4W 4D 12L in 20 games, 0.8 scored per game

• Head-to-head is entirely historical (no meetings in the last 12 months); older record at this ground is 1W 1D 1L for the hosts

• Combined xG data suggests a total in the region of 2.7 to 3.1 goals

The force is with the goals, I say. Over 2.5 goals is my pick for this one — the net will shake at the Riazor, and three or more will find their way in. May the odds be ever in your favour.