Farnborough vs Dagenham & Redbridge Prediction

Farnborough have had a rough patch, and Dagenham & Redbridge are looking to keep their good run going when the two meet at Farnborough's ground on 17 October.

The case for Dagenham & Redbridge is pretty straightforward. They've picked up 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from their last five, racking up 1.6 points per game. Farnborough, by contrast, have won none of their last five, managing just 2 draws and 3 losses for 0.4 points per game. The gap is stark. Dagenham & Redbridge have also kept 3 clean sheets in that span and conceded just 4 goals, while Farnborough have conceded 11 and failed to score in 3 of 5.

Looking at the wider picture, Dagenham & Redbridge's defensive numbers over their last 10 games tell the story: 1 goal conceded per game and 4 clean sheets. Farnborough are conceding 1.8 per game and have only 2 clean sheets in the same period. When you stack that up against Dagenham & Redbridge's away record of 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses over 20 games, the picture is clear.

The head-to-head adds another layer. Dagenham & Redbridge won the last meeting at Farnborough's ground back in March, 2-3, and the only other meeting between these two was a 0-0 draw at Dagenham & Redbridge's end. So Farnborough haven't beaten them in either venue in recent memory.

Now, the counter-argument: Farnborough do have a home record of 7 wins from 20 games, and they've managed draws in 2 of their last 5. The 0-0 draw at Dagenham & Redbridge's ground shows these two can cancel each other out. And Farnborough's home games do produce goals — 10 of their last 20 home fixtures went over 2.5. So a draw or even a home upset isn't out of the question.

But the form gap is too big to ignore. Farnborough lost 0-4 to Billericay Town just 7 days before this fixture, and they've won none of their last five. Dagenham & Redbridge, meanwhile, beat Hampton & Richmond 1-0 and Waltham Abbey 3-0 in their last two home games before the 0-0 with Hemel Hempstead. They're the side with the momentum and the defensive solidity.

The market has Dagenham & Redbridge at 2.0 for the win, which prices them at 50%. I'd put their chances closer to 55%, which means there's a little value in the away side.

Key Points:

• Dagenham & Redbridge: 2W 2D 1L in last 5; Farnborough: 0W 2D 3L

• Dagenham & Redbridge conceded 1 goal per game in last 10; Farnborough conceded 1.8

• Dagenham & Redbridge won the last H2H at Farnborough's ground (2-3)

• Farnborough have failed to score in 3 of their last 5

• Dagenham & Redbridge have 4 clean sheets in their last 10 games

My pick: Dagenham & Redbridge away win.