Farnborough vs Dagenham & Redbridge Prediction

Right, so we've got Farnborough hosting Dagenham & Redbridge on 17 October in the National League South, and let me tell you, the form gap here is something you can smell from the parking lot. Dagenham & Redbridge have come into this one cooking. Their last five matches? Two wins, two draws, one loss. They've scored six goals and conceded just four, and they've kept three clean sheets in that stretch. In their last ten games across all venues, they've conceded only one goal per game and managed four clean sheets. That is a tight, disciplined side, and it shows.

Now look at Farnborough. Zero wins in their last five. They've drawn two and lost three, scoring four and conceding eleven. They haven't kept a single clean sheet in that run, and they failed to score in three of those five. Their last home game before this was a 0–1 loss to Dover on 12 September, and before that a 0–2 defeat to Uxbridge in the FA Cup on 22 September. The 0–4 thrashing at Billericay Town on 10 October was the final nail. This side is struggling, and it's not just one bad result – it's a pattern.

The head-to-head is short – just two meetings in the last 12 months – but the one at Farnborough's ground on 17 March 2026 went to Dagenham & Redbridge, 3–2. The other, at Dagenham & Redbridge's ground on 1 November 2025, was a 0–0 draw. So the visitors have the edge at this venue, and that's not nothing when you're looking at just one meeting.

Now, the counter-argument, and I'll give it fair play. Farnborough's home record over 20 games is 7 wins, 2 draws, 11 losses – 1.15 points per game. Dagenham & Redbridge's away record over 20 games is 5 wins, 4 draws, 11 losses – 0.95 points per game. Farnborough's home numbers look a touch better. They've scored 1.2 per game at home over that stretch. But that's a 20-game stretch that includes games going back to December 2025. What matters right now is the last five, and in that window Dagenham & Redbridge are at 1.6 points per game while Farnborough are at 0.4. That's a massive gap, and it's the gap that's telling the real story.

The market has Dagenham & Redbridge at 2.0 for the away win, which implies a 50% chance. My read, based on the form, the head-to-head at this ground, and the defensive solidity Dagenham & Redbridge have shown, is that they're better than even-to-win here. I'd put their chance at around 55%. The form is on their side, the venue history supports them, and Farnborough simply haven't been scoring or keeping clean sheets. This is a game where the visitors should be taking the points.

Key Points:

• Dagenham & Redbridge: 2W 2D 1L in last 5, 6 scored, 4 conceded, 3 clean sheets

• Farnborough: 0W 2D 3L in last 5, 4 scored, 11 conceded, 0 clean sheets

• Head-to-head at Farnborough's ground (17 March 2026): Dagenham & Redbridge won 3–2

• Dagenham & Redbridge conceded 1 goal per game in their last 10, with 4 clean sheets

• Farnborough's home record over 20 games is 7W 2D 11L, but current form tells a very different story

My pick: Dagenham & Redbridge away win.