Farnborough vs Dagenham & Redbridge Prediction

The force is strong with Dagenham & Redbridge, and it shows in the numbers. Their last five matches tell a story of a side in command: two wins, two draws, one loss, with 1.6 points per game and just four goals conceded across that stretch. Three clean sheets in five games — that is a defence that does not flinch. Farnborough, by contrast, have won none of their last five. Three losses, two draws, 0.4 points per game, and 11 goals conceded. The 0–4 defeat at Billericay Town on 10 October sits like a stone in the stomach, and the 0–2 home loss to Uxbridge on 22 September reminds us that this ground has not been a sanctuary of late.

The head-to-head at this venue is small — only one meeting within the last 12 months — but what it shows is telling. On 17 March 2026, Dagenham & Redbridge came to Farnborough's ground and won 3–2. That is the only meeting at this venue in the recent window, and the visitors took all three points. The reverse fixture at Dagenham & Redbridge's ground on 1 November 2025 ended 0–0, so the aggregate is one win for the visitors, one draw, and no wins for Farnborough. Patience, you must have, when the sample is small, but the direction is clear.

The wider records add weight to the visitors' case. Over their last 10 matches across all venues, Dagenham & Redbridge have collected 1.2 points per game and conceded just one goal per game, while Farnborough manage 0.9 points per game and concede 1.8. In the 20-game home and away comparison, Farnborough's home record of 7 wins, 2 draws and 11 losses does edge Dagenham & Redbridge's away record of 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in raw wins, and Farnborough score 1.2 per game at home against 1 for the visitors away. But the current form gap is wide, and the head-to-head at this ground points the other way.

The counter-argument is not nothing. Farnborough's home record over 20 games does show they can find a way to win, and their home scoring record — 1.2 goals per game — suggests this ground can produce goals. Dagenham & Redbridge's most recent outing was a 0–0 draw at home, and their last away game ended in a 1–3 loss at Brentwood Town. Two meetings is a thin sample for a head-to-head, and the 0–0 at the reverse venue shows these sides can cancel each other out.

But the weight of evidence leans one way. A side that has conceded four goals in five games, won the only meeting at this ground, and outperforms their opponents in most recent form metrics is the side to trust. The market prices Dagenham & Redbridge at 2.0, implying a 50% chance. My reading of the form, the defensive solidity, and the head-to-head at this venue puts their likelihood of a win above that figure.

Key Points:

• Dagenham & Redbridge: 2W 2D 1L in last 5, 1.6 ppg, 4 goals conceded, 3 clean sheets

• Farnborough: 0W 2D 3L in last 5, 0.4 ppg, 11 goals conceded, 0 clean sheets

• Only meeting at Farnborough's ground in the last 12 months: 2–3 to Dagenham & Redbridge

• Farnborough's 20-game home record (7W 2D 11L) offers some counterweight to the current form gap

• Dagenham & Redbridge's last 10: 3W 3D 4L, 1.0 conceded per game vs Farnborough's 1.8

I back the away win.