Granada CF vs Cadiz Prediction

There's a clear story in the numbers here, and it points one way. Granada CF at home are a different proposition from Cadiz on the road, and the gap between those two records is hard to ignore.

Granada CF's home record over the last 20 games at their ground reads 7 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses — 1.4 points per game, conceding just 1.1 per match and keeping 7 clean sheets. Cadiz's away record over the same 20-game span is 4 wins, 7 draws, 9 losses — 0.95 points per game, conceding 1.8 per match and managing only 2 clean sheets. That's a significant gap in both direction and output, and it's the kind of split that tells you where the value sits.

The form heading into this fixture reinforces the point. Granada CF have won their last two matches, scoring 4 and conceding 2, and sit on 4 wins from their last 10 across all venues. Cadiz, by contrast, have won just 1 of their last 10, lost their most recent game 0-1 at home to Sporting Gijon on 11 October, and are conceding at a rate that makes their away record look even more fragile. The points-per-game gap over the last 10 — 1.4 for Granada CF versus 0.7 for Cadiz — is the kind of number that doesn't need much embellishment.

The head-to-head at this venue is thin — one meeting, a 0-0 draw on 25 October 2025 — so I won't lean on it heavily. The broader recent H2H picture is fairly even: Cadiz won 2-0 in August, Granada CF won 2-1 in January, and the October meeting was a draw. The full aggregate across 16 meetings spans eight years and is mostly historical, so I'm treating it as background colour rather than a current trend.

The counter-argument is real. Granada CF lost 2-3 at home to FC Andorra three weeks ago, and the H2H at this ground has produced a scoreless draw. Cadiz did score 4-0 at home against Leganes two weeks ago, showing they can find their edge. And the full H2H aggregate shows 14 of 16 meetings finished under 2.5 goals, which suggests these two sides don't always produce open games. Those are legitimate reasons to hesitate.

But the weight of evidence — Granada CF's solid home record, Cadiz's struggling away numbers, the clear form gap over the last 10 games — tilts this firmly toward the hosts. The market prices Granada CF at 1.89. My own reading of the form, venue records and recent results puts the hosts' win probability above the market's implied level. When the numbers line up like this, the value is there, and I'm not going to pretend it isn't.

Key Points:

• Granada CF's home record (7W 7D 6L, 1.4 ppg) dwarfs Cadiz's away record (4W 7D 9L, 0.95 ppg)

• Granada CF won their last 2 matches; Cadiz lost their last and have just 1 win in 10

• H2H at this venue is a single 0-0 draw; recent meetings are split

• Cadiz's away defence concedes 1.8 per game over 20 games

• Granada CF's home clean sheet rate (7/20) is well ahead of Cadiz's away (2/20)

Verdict: Granada CF home win at 1.89.