Granada CF vs Cadiz Prediction

There's something quietly endearing about a draw in the Segunda División — it's the outcome nobody's cheering for, the one that slips under the radar while the favourites get their headlines. And that's exactly where I find my value today. Granada CF host Cadiz on 18 October, and the market is firmly on Granada's side at 1.89 (52.91% implied). But the numbers at this specific ground tell a different, more modest story.

Here's the case for the level score. Granada CF's home record over 20 games is 7W 7D 6L — a 35% draw rate. Cadiz's away record over 20 games is 4W 7D 9L — also a 35% draw rate. At this very ground, the only meeting within the last 12 months was a 0–0 on 25 October 2025. Granada CF's last home game was a 1–1 with Albacete on 12 September, and Cadiz's last away game was a 1–1 with Tenerife on 26 September. When you line those up, the draw isn't a reach — it's the pattern.

Granada CF do arrive in good shape. They won their last two games — 1–0 at Burgos on 12 October and 3–2 at Real Sociedad II on 4 October — scoring 4 and conceding 2 in that run. Their home defence concedes 1.1 per game over 20 games, and their xG against in the two most recent games with data was 1.45 per game. That's a compact unit at home.

The counter-argument is clear and I won't pretend it isn't. Granada CF are the favourites, and Cadiz's recent form is rough: 1W 4D 5L in their last 10, with a 0–1 loss to Sporting Gijon on 11 October and a 1–2 defeat to Girona on 19 September. They failed to score in 2 of their last 5 matches. A Granada win is the most probable outcome on the evidence, and I'd be foolish to say otherwise.

But here's where the underdog's heart comes in. The draw at 3.68 is priced at 27.17% by the market, and I think the venue-specific evidence nudges that probability just above the market's view. Cadiz's away scoring of 1.55 per game over 20 games is tempered by their recent 1.2 per game over 10. Granada's home defence is tight. The 0–0 at this ground last October, the 1–1 here against Albacete and the 1–1 in Cadiz's last away game — it all points to a tight, low-scoring affair where neither side can quite find the edge.

Key Points:

• Granada CF's home record: 7W 7D 6L in 20 games; Cadiz's away record: 4W 7D 9L in 20 games — both teams draw 35% of the time at their respective venues.

• The only recent head-to-head at Granada's ground (25 October 2025) ended 0–0.

• Granada CF's last home game was a 1–1 draw; Cadiz's last away game was also a 1–1 draw.

• Granada CF's xG against in recent games with data: 1.45 per game; Cadiz's recent scoring: 1.2 per game over 10.

• The draw at 3.68 (27.17% implied) is supported by venue-specific evidence that the market may be underpricing.

My pick: the draw.