De Graafschap's Form Edge Over Jong Ajax

The form gap between these two sides is stark. De Graafschap arrive having won three of their last five matches, scoring eight goals and conceding just six, and they have not failed to score in any of those five games. Their away record over 20 games stands at 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses, with 1.65 goals scored per game. Their most recent outing was a 2–1 home win over Jong Utrecht on 9 October, and before that a 2–2 draw at FC Eindhoven on 3 October. Jong Ajax, by contrast, have lost three of their last five, scoring only two and conceding 11. Their most recent home game ended 0–3 to VVV Venlo on 9 October, and they have failed to score in three of those five matches. Their home record over 20 games is 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses, with 1.85 goals conceded per game and 8 of those 20 games ending without a Jong Ajax goal. The 1–0 win at Almere City FC on 4 September remains their only victory in the last five. The head-to-head at this venue offers no recent evidence. The only meeting within the last 12 months was De Graafschap's 4–0 win at their own ground on 6 February. The older meetings at Jong Ajax's ground — a 2–2 draw in October 2025 and a 2–0 win for the home side in December 2024 — are historical and do not reflect current form. The full head-to-head spans 17 meetings over nine years, with De Graafschap holding a slight edge at 7 wins to 6, but those figures are heavily diluted by older results. The strongest counter-argument for Jong Ajax is that their home record, while poor, does include 5 wins in 20 games, and the 2–0 win over De Graafschap at this ground in December 2024 shows the fixture is not one-sided. However, that result is over 22 months old and sits firmly in the historical record. More recently, De Graafschap's away form — 7 wins in 20 away games — clearly outperforms Jong Ajax's home output of 5 wins in 20. Key Points: - De Graafschap: 3W 1D 1L in last 5, 8 scored, 6 conceded, 0/5 failed to score - Jong Ajax: 1W 1D 3L in last 5, 2 scored, 11 conceded, 3/5 failed to score - De Graafschap away record: 7W 6D 7L in 20 games; Jong Ajax home record: 5W 5D 10L in 20 games - Only one recent H2H meeting: De Graafschap 4–0 at their ground on 6 February 2026 - No recent meeting at Jong Ajax's ground; older results are historical only The football points clearly to De Graafschap as the stronger side on form and venue record, but the 2.25 price on an away win does not reflect a probability high enough for my criteria. No bet.