Preview
Right, so Millwall take on Lincoln on 17 October, and if you've been following the form books, this one's got the smell of a tight, low-scoring affair about it.
Millwall's home record over the last 20 games is solid — 10 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses, and they've conceded just 0.95 a game. That's a decent defensive base. But their last five has been a bit of a mixed bag: one win, two draws, two losses, and they just went down 0-1 to Swansea at home on 13 October. So the numbers look good, but the recent results tell a slightly different story.
Lincoln, on the other hand, are struggling on the road. Their last two away games have been a 0-3 loss at Sheffield United and a 1-0 win at Bristol City. They've scored just three goals in their last five matches and failed to score in two of them. That's a team that's having real trouble finding the back of the net, and it's the single most important thing in this fixture.
Now, the counter-argument: Lincoln's away record over 20 games is actually better than Millwall's home record — 12 wins to 10, 1.9 points per game to 1.65. So the visitors have a strong track record on the road. And Millwall's last two home games have seen mixed results — a 0-1 loss to Swansea and a 2-2 draw with West Ham. The head-to-head is a complete blank with no meetings on record, so we're flying blind on that front. It's all about current form and venue records.
Key Points:
- Lincoln have failed to score in 2 of their last 5 games and scored just 3 in total
- Millwall's home record: 13 of their last 20 home games saw at least one team not score
- Lincoln's away record: 12 of their last 20 away games saw at least one team not score
- Both teams' last 10 games: 6 of 10 saw at least one team not score
- Millwall's last home game was a 0-1 loss to Swansea on 13 October
So here's the thing. Lincoln's scoring drought is the story. They've managed just 0.6 a goal in their last five, and in their most recent away game they were blanked. Combine that with both teams' venue records — 13 of 20 for Millwall at home and 12 of 20 for Lincoln away — and the case for at least one team going scoreless is strong. The price of 2.05 for both teams not to score looks a touch generous when you stack up the evidence.
My pick: both teams not to score.
