Preview
Millwall and Lincoln meet on 17 October in a Championship fixture that, on the evidence, looks like it could be a cagey, low-scoring affair. There's no head-to-head history between these two sides on record, so we have to lean on what each team brings to the table in their respective venues and recent form.
The case for a quiet game starts with the venue records. Over their last 20 home games, Millwall have seen both teams score in just 7 of 20 — that's 13 of 20 where at least one side failed to find the net. Lincoln's away record tells a similar story: 12 of their last 20 away games ended with at least one team scoreless. Stack those two records together and the picture of a tight, one-goal affair starts to take shape.
Lincoln's recent form adds fuel to that fire. In their last five matches, at least one team failed to score in four of those games, and Lincoln themselves went blank in two of them — the 0–3 loss at Sheffield United on 10 October and the 0–4 defeat at Bournemouth on 8 September. Their away record over 20 games shows they've failed to score in only 3 of those 20, but the last two outings have been a different story entirely.
Millwall's home form is solid — 10 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses over 20 home games, with 9 clean sheets — but their last five matches have been a mixed bag: a 0–1 home loss to Swansea on 13 October, a 1–0 win at Preston, and two 2–2 draws. In those five, both teams scored in three of the games, which is the main counter-argument here. Millwall have been dragged into scoring exchanges recently, and the 2–2 with West Ham and the 2–2 at Middlesbrough show they can be pulled into open games.
The honest truth is that neither side is flying. Millwall lost their last game, won the one before that, and drew two before that. Lincoln are on a two-game losing run and have conceded five goals in those two. That mutual fragility often points toward a tight result where one team simply doesn't get on the scoresheet.
Key Points:
- Millwall's last 20 home games: 13 of 20 saw at least one team fail to score
- Lincoln's last 20 away games: 12 of 20 saw at least one team fail to score
- Lincoln went blank in 2 of their last 5 matches; at least one team failed to score in 4 of 5
- No head-to-head meetings on record between these two sides
- Both teams' latest 10 games show 6 of 10 with at least one side scoreless
The market prices both teams to score at 57.47% and both teams not to score at 48.78%. My read, based on the venue records and Lincoln's recent scoring struggles, is that the "no" side of this market is more likely than the market suggests. I'm backing both teams not to score at 2.05.
