Preview
Right, so we've got Millwall hosting Lincoln on 17 October, and this one's got a nice flavour to it, like a good braai on an afternoon. You want to see who's got the meat on the plate, and I think it's the home side.
The strongest case here is Millwall's home record. Over 20 games at their ground, they've won 10, drawn 3 and lost 7 — 1.65 points per game, scoring 1.5 a game and conceding just 0.95. They've kept clean sheets in 9 of those 20. Now look at what Lincoln have been doing: a 0–3 thrashing at Sheffield United on 10 October, then a 1–2 defeat at home to Swansea on 19 September. Their current run is two straight losses, and in those two they've scored just one goal and conceded five. Their last five overall is 2 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses, with only 3 goals across the lot. That's a team that's struggling, and they're coming to a ground where Millwall have a solid record.
The counter-argument is real though. Lincoln's away record over 20 games is actually the better one — 12 wins, 2 draws, 6 losses, 1.9 points per game. That's a strong record stretching back to 7 March. And Millwall's own recent form is a bit patchy: 1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses in their last five, and they lost that 0–1 home game to Swansea just four days ago. So you can't say Millwall are flying either. The matchup table does show Lincoln's away points per game (1.9) sitting above Millwall's home figure (1.65), which is worth noting.
There's no head-to-head on record between these two, so we're leaning on the venue records and current form. The matchup table shows Millwall scoring more at home (1.5 per game) and conceding less (0.95) than Lincoln do away (1.35 scored, 1.3 conceded). And Lincoln's defence has been leaking — they conceded 6 goals in their last four games with xG data, against an expected 4.83. Millwall's xG against in their last five games with data was 1.62 per game, and they actually conceded 11 in those five, so they're not perfect either. But the balance tips Millwall's way when you factor in the home record and Lincoln's current run.
Key Points:
- Millwall's home record: 10W 3D 7L in 20 games, 1.65 ppg, 0.95 conceded per game
- Lincoln lost their last two (0–3 at Sheffield Utd, 1–2 at home to Swansea), scoring just 1 in those games
- Lincoln's away record is strong over 20 games (12W 2D 6L) but recent form is poor
- No head-to-head meetings on record
- Millwall's last five: 1W 2D 2L; Lincoln's last five: 2W 0D 3L
My pick: Millwall home win at 2.02.
