Modena vs Empoli Prediction

Right then, let's have a proper look at this Serie B showdown. Modena are sitting pretty at the top of the table, and for good reason - they're unbeaten after 8 games with 5 wins and 3 draws. They've been solid as a rock at home too, winning 80% of their last 5 home matches and scoring a tidy 2 goals per game while keeping things tight at the back with just 0.6 conceded.

Empoli, on the other hand, are having a right old time of it away from home. They've managed just one win in their last four away trips, losing three of them, and they're shipping goals for fun - nearly 3 per game on their travels! That 4-0 hammering by Pescara and 3-1 loss to Reggiana show they can be got at. They haven't kept a single clean sheet in their last 10 matches either, which tells you all you need to know about their defensive woes.

Modena's recent form has been top-notch. They went to Palermo (second place) and came away with a 1-1 draw, then beat Virtus Entella 2-0 at home. They're grinding out results and look proper tough to beat. Empoli have been drawing a lot lately - four in their last six - but those draws have come against teams they'd expect to be beating.

The stats paint a clear picture here. Modena are averaging 2.38 expected goals at home, while Empoli are looking at just 0.80 away. When you factor in that Modena have kept 40% clean sheets and Empoli have kept zilch, well, you do the maths!

Key Points:

• Modena top of Serie B, unbeaten in 8 league games

• Empoli concede 2.75 goals per game away from home

• Modena have 80% home win rate in last 5 matches

• Empoli haven't kept a clean sheet in 10 games

• Modena score 2.0 goals per game at home

This looks like a classic case of home advantage and form trumping everything else. Modena are flying and Empoli are struggling on the road. The odds of 1.80 for a home win look decent value to me.