Match preview
EnglandPremier League
Look, I'll be honest with you – this one's got the smell of a braai on it. Arsenal are cooking, and Nottingham Forest are struggling to keep the coals lit.
Arsenal have won their last two games, scoring 5 and conceding just 1, and if you look at their last 10 matches across all competitions, the numbers are frankly ridiculous: 9 wins, 0 draws, 1 loss. They're scoring 2.1 per game and conceding 0.7. Their away record over the last 20 games is 12 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses, with 1.75 goals per game on the road. That's a team that doesn't care if it's playing in London or the other end of the country – they just go and get it done. Even in the Champions League, they put 3 past Lille at home five days ago, so the momentum isn't slowing.
Now look at Forest. They've lost their last two – 1-3 at Crystal Palace and 0-1 at home to Coventry – and in those two games they scored 1 and conceded 4. Over their last 10 matches, they've managed 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses, scoring just 0.9 per game and failing to score in 5 of those 10. At home over 20 games, they've drawn 7 times, which tells you they're not easy to beat at the City Ground, but they're also not winning with any regularity. Their home record sits at 7 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses, with 1.1 goals per game.
The head-to-head is mostly historical – the only meeting within the last 12 months was a 0-0 draw at Forest's ground back in January. Before that, Arsenal won 3-0 twice and 2-1 once, with Forest failing to score in 7 of 12 meetings. So the history leans Arsenal's way, even if the most recent meeting was a stalemate.
The counter-argument? Forest at home have 8 clean sheets in 20 games and that 0-0 with Tottenham showed they can park the bus. Arsenal did lose 0-3 at Brighton four weeks ago, so they're not invincible. And that January 0-0 at the City Ground is a reminder that Forest can frustrate you. But I'll be straight with you – that's a thin reed to hang a bet on when Arsenal are winning 9 out of 10 and Forest can't keep a score on the board half the time. You know what they say in SA: if the meat's on the coals, you don't keep fanning the fire hoping it'll stay raw.
Key Points:
My pick: away win – Arsenal to beat Nottingham Forest.