Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal Prediction

The force of a team in rhythm, you must respect. Arsenal arrive at Nottingham Forest's ground having won their last two matches — five goals scored, one conceded. Nine wins, no draws, one loss in their last ten. That is a side that has found its groove, and the groove runs deep.

Nottingham Forest, meanwhile, have lost their last two, scoring one and conceding four. In their last five matches, one win, two draws, two losses. The last ten tells a similar tale: three wins, two draws, five losses. A team that failed to score in five of those ten games struggles to find the back of the net, and at home that struggle is even more visible — eight of their last twenty home games ended without a Forest goal.

The head-to-head at this ground is thin on recent evidence. The only meeting within the last twelve months was a 0–0 draw in January. The older meetings at this ground show one Arsenal win (1–2) and one draw (0–0). Across all twelve meetings spanning nine years, Arsenal have won seven, Forest three, and Forest failed to score in seven of those twelve. The dates stretch back far, and older games dilute current form.

Arsenal's away record over twenty games is the real story. Twelve wins, five draws, three losses. They score 1.75 per game on the road and concede 0.95. They have failed to score in only one of those twenty away matches. Their xG against in recent games sits at 0.4 per game, with just two actual goals conceded across five matches. That is a defence that shuts the door.

Forest's home record, by contrast, is a mixed bag: seven wins, seven draws, six losses. They score 1.1 per game at home and concede 0.7. Their xG for in recent games is 2.1 per game, yet they have managed only three actual goals across three matches with xG data. The gap between what they create and what they finish is a problem that has not gone away.

The counter-argument, if you will, is that the only recent meeting at this ground ended 0–0, and Forest do have seven home wins in twenty. A team that draws 0–0 with Arsenal at home is not a team that simply folds. And Arsenal did lose 0–3 at Brighton four weeks ago, a reminder that even the best sides have a bad day. But one loss in ten, against a side that has won nine, does not rewrite the picture.

Key Points:

• Arsenal won their last two matches (5 scored, 1 conceded) and have 9 wins in their last 10

• Nottingham Forest lost their last two (1 scored, 4 conceded) and failed to score in 5 of their last 10

• Arsenal's away record: 12W 5D 3L in 20 games; Forest's home record: 7W 7D 6L in 20

• The only recent head-to-head at this ground was a 0–0 draw; older meetings at this ground show one Arsenal win and one draw

• Arsenal have failed to score in only 1 of 20 away games; Forest failed to score in 8 of 20 home games

The wise choice, I tell you, is to trust the momentum. Away win.