Preview
Right, so we've got Nottingham Forest hosting Arsenal at Forest's ground on 18 October, and if you've been following the form books, this one looks like it's been written for the visitors.
Arsenal have been absolutely relentless. Nine wins in their last ten games across all competitions, 2.1 goals a game and just 0.7 conceded. They've won their last two — a 3–0 over Lille in the Champions League and a 2–1 against Leeds at home — and before that they were winning away at Sunderland 2–0 and at Ipswich 4–2. Their away record over the last 20 games tells the same story: 12 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses, 2.05 points per game, and they've only failed to score in one of those 20 trips. That's a side that goes out there and gets the job done on the road.
Now look at Forest. They've lost their last two — 1–3 at Crystal Palace and 0–1 at home to Coventry — and in their last five they've managed just one win, two draws and two losses. One goal a game, 1.4 conceded. They've failed to score in two of those five. The xG numbers back it up too: Forest have generated 2.1 xG per game over three recent matches but only found three actual goals, while Arsenal have hit 11 goals from 1.85 xG per game over five games. The Gunners are outscoring and outperforming their opponents by a mile.
The head-to-head is mostly historical — the only meeting within the last 12 months was a 0–0 draw at Forest's ground back in January. Before that, Arsenal won 3–0, 3–0 and 2–1 in the older fixtures, but those are dated and I wouldn't hang too much on them. What matters is the current picture, and that points firmly to Arsenal.
Now, the counter-argument. Forest's home record over 20 games isn't a disaster — 7 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses, and they've kept 8 clean sheets. Their home defence concedes just 0.7 a game, which is respectable. And that January meeting ended 0–0, so Forest can park the bus and make it a scrappy, low-scoring affair. Arsenal did lose 0–3 at Brighton four weeks ago, so they're not invincible. But one loss in ten doesn't really dent the overall picture.
Key Points:
- Arsenal have won 9 of their last 10 games, scoring 2.1 per game and conceding just 0.7
- Forest have lost their last two and scored only 1 goal in those matches
- Arsenal's away record: 12 wins in 20 games, only 1 failure to score
- Forest's home record includes 7 draws in 20 games — they can make it tight
- The only recent head-to-head (January 2026) was a 0–0 draw
The numbers don't lie, mate. Arsenal are in a different league of form right now, and Forest are struggling to find goals. I'm going with the away win at 1.66.
