Oldham vs Cheltenham Prediction

Oldham's home record at this ground tells a compelling story. Across 20 home games, they've won 11, drawn 3 and lost 6, averaging 1.8 points per game. Their defence has been the standout feature: 11 clean sheets in those 20 matches, conceding just 0.95 goals per game. That's a side that shuts teams down at home, and it's the foundation of my thinking here.

Cheltenham's away record paints a less comfortable picture. Over 20 away games, they've managed 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses for 1.2 points per game. They score 1.4 per game on the road but concede 1.6, and they've failed to score in 4 of those 20 trips. Their last five matches have been a struggle: one win, two draws and two losses, with three red cards falling in that stretch — two for Cheltenham and one for an opponent. The disruption from those dismissals has clearly affected their rhythm.

The head-to-head at this venue adds to the picture. The most recent meeting, on 17 January 2026, saw Oldham edge it 2–1 at their ground. The older meetings are historical and span several years, so I'd lean on that recent result and the current form rather than the longer history.

Here's where the underdog angle comes in. Oldham's home record shows 13 of their 20 home games ended with at least one team failing to score. Their last five matches produced three BTTS-no results. Cheltenham's away record shows 8 of 20 away games were BTTS-no, and they've failed to score in 4 of those 20. The combination of Oldham's solid home defence and Cheltenham's tendency to go blank on the road points towards at least one team keeping a clean sheet. I rate the chance of at least one team scoring zero at around 48%, which sits above the market's 44.44% implied probability on the 2.25 price. There's a small but genuine edge here for the little guy.

The counter-argument is real, though. Cheltenham's latest 10 games across all venues show 8 of 10 with both teams scoring. They've scored 1.7 per game in that stretch, and their last five matches saw them find the net in three of five. They're not a side that sits back and doesn't score. Oldham themselves have scored in 3 of their last 5, and their home scoring average of 1.6 per game means they're capable of finding the net. The market prices both teams to score at 1.67, implying nearly 60% likelihood, and that's not unreasonable given Cheltenham's recent scoring output. I acknowledge the risk, but the home defence numbers and Cheltenham's away blank record give me enough to feel the underdog side of this market is worth a look.

Key Points:

• Oldham have kept clean sheets in 11 of their last 20 home games, and 13 of those 20 ended with at least one team scoreless

• Cheltenham's away record: 6W 6D 8L in 20, with 4 failures to score and 1.6 goals conceded per game

• The most recent meeting at this ground (17 January 2026) was a 2–1 Oldham win

• Cheltenham's last 5 matches included 3 red cards and only 1 win

• Cheltenham's latest 10 games show 8 of 10 with both teams scoring, which is the main counter-argument

I'm going with both teams not to score.