Preview
Eish, boet, what a fixture. Oldham at home against Cheltenham, and if you sit down with the numbers over a cold beer, this one's got a shape to it that's hard to argue with.
Oldham's home record over their last 20 games at this ground is the headline. Eleven wins, three draws, six losses — 1.8 points per game. They've scored 1.6 goals per game and conceded just 0.95, keeping 11 clean sheets in those 20. That's a side that comes home and does the business, no drama. The most recent meeting between these two at Oldham's ground, back on 17 January, ended 2–1 to the hosts. That's the only meeting within the last 12 months, so the head-to-head at this venue is thin, but it points the right way.
Cheltenham's away record over 20 games tells a very different story. Six wins, six draws, eight losses — 1.2 points per game. They score 1.4 per game away but concede 1.6, and they've only managed 5 clean sheets in 20 away outings. Their last away result was a 0–2 loss to Accrington ST, with a red card for Cheltenham. Their 0–2 loss to Salford City at home also saw them reduced to ten men. That's not a side that's travelling well, and it's no coincidence they've been down to ten men in both.
Now, the counter-argument, because I'm not a fool. Oldham's last five games are a bit of a mixed bag — two wins, a draw, two losses. They lost 1–4 to Salford City at home three weeks ago, and the 0–0 draw with Accrington ST showed they can go quiet. Their 4–2 win over Leeds United U21 was an EFL Trophy game, so it's not the same as a league test. Cheltenham, on the other hand, have scored 1.7 goals per game in their last 10 across all venues, and 8 of those 10 saw both teams find the net. So if Oldham's defence slips, Cheltenham can hurt them.
But here's the thing — Oldham's home numbers are just too solid to ignore. 11 clean sheets in 20 home games, conceding under a goal a game. Cheltenham away are leaking 1.6 per game. The January meeting at this ground went 2–1 to Oldham. The overall picture is clear: Oldham at home are the stronger side on the numbers, and Cheltenham away are the weaker side. The market prices Oldham at 1.72, which implies about 58% chance. My read is that Oldham's home record and Cheltenham's away struggles give the hosts a better than even chance — I'd put it around 63%. That's a small but real edge over the market's view.
Key Points:
- Oldham's home record: 11W 3D 6L in 20 games, 1.8 ppg, 0.95 conceded per game
- Cheltenham's away record: 6W 6D 8L in 20 games, 1.2 ppg, 1.6 conceded per game
- Most recent H2H at Oldham's ground: 2–1 to Oldham (17 January 2026)
- Cheltenham's last two results: 0–2 losses, both with red cards for Cheltenham
- Oldham's last 5: 2W 1D 2L — mixed, but the 20-game home record is the real story
So here's my call: I'm going with the Oldham home win at 1.72.
