Preview
Right, settle in with a pint and let's have a look at this one. Oldham take on Cheltenham at their ground on 17 October, and while the winner might be a bit of a call, there's a solid angle on the scoreline that's worth a look.
Oldham's home record is the story here. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 11, drawn 3 and lost 6, racking up 1.8 points per game. They score 1.6 a game at home and concede just 0.95, and 11 of those 20 games ended with a clean sheet. That's a side that knows how to keep the back door locked at home. And when Cheltenham last visited this ground back in January, Oldham won 2–1. So the recent head-to-head at this venue is in the hosts' favour.
Cheltenham, on the other hand, are struggling on the road. Their last 20 away games have produced 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses at 1.2 points per game. They score 1.4 a game away but concede 1.6, and they've only managed 5 clean sheets in 20 trips. Their recent form is not helping matters either – they've won just one of their last five, with two 0–2 defeats (one to Salford City at home and one to Accrington ST away, both with red cards in the mix). That's a side that's leaking goals and not finding the net.
Now, the counter-argument is this: Cheltenham's last 10 games have seen both teams score in 8 of those 10. That's a pretty strong signal that the Robins are scoring regularly, and it makes a scoreless line from either side less likely. Oldham's own form is a bit patchy too – they lost 1–4 to Salford City at home three weeks ago and drew 0–0 with Accrington ST. Their last 10 is 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses. So this isn't a team in perfect shape.
But here's the thing. Oldham's home record on both-teams-to-score is 13 no out of 20, which is 65%. That's a strong signal that at least one team fails to score when they're at home. Cheltenham's away record on the same metric is 8 no out of 20, which is 40%. And Oldham's last five games have seen at least one team go scoreless in three of those five. The recent head-to-head at this ground was 2–1, which was a BTTS yes, but the wider head-to-head picture (5 of 8 meetings) leans towards one team keeping quiet.
So the market favours both teams scoring, but I think the evidence tilts the other way. Oldham's home record of keeping at least one team scoreless in 13 of 20 games, combined with Cheltenham's poor away scoring record and recent 0–2 defeats, gives me a reason to back the no. I'd rate the chance of at least one team failing to score at around 50%, which sits comfortably above the market's implied 44.44%.
Key Points:
- Oldham have kept at least one team scoreless in 13 of their last 20 home games
- Cheltenham have won just 6 of their last 20 away games and conceded 1.6 per game on the road
- The recent head-to-head at this ground was a 2–1 Oldham win
- Cheltenham's last 10 games saw both teams score in 8 of them, which is the main counter-argument
- Oldham's form is mixed, with a 1–4 home loss to Salford City three weeks ago
Verdict: I'm going with both teams not to score at 2.25.
