Pisa vs Palermo Prediction

Palermo are flying, and Pisa at home are not exactly setting the world alight. That's the simple story here, mates.

Palermo have won their last four games in a row, scoring 10 and conceding just 4. Stretch that out to ten matches and the numbers get even more impressive: nine wins, one draw, no defeats. They're averaging 2.5 goals a game and keeping it to one. Their xG numbers back it up too — 2.39 per game on the attack, 1.48 against. They're not just winning; they're winning with authority, and they haven't failed to score in any of their last five.

Now look at Pisa's home record over 20 games: 4 wins, 3 draws, 13 losses. That's 0.75 points per game and 1.65 goals conceded per game. They haven't kept a clean sheet in any of those 20 home games. Yes, they beat Cremonese 3-1 on 17 October, and that's a good result, but the wider picture at home is grim. Their last five overall is 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss — decent, but not the sort of form that makes you fancy them at home against a side on a roll.

The matchup table makes it even clearer. Palermo's away record over 20 games is 7 wins, 7 draws, 6 losses — 1.4 points per game, 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded. Pisa's home record is 4 wins, 3 draws, 13 losses — 0.75 points per game, 1.1 scored, 1.65 conceded. On most lines, Palermo's away numbers beat Pisa's home numbers. That's not a close call.

The head-to-head is all historical — the last meeting was back in January 2025, and before that it's 2024 and 2023. Pisa did win four of those seven, but those games are two or three years old and don't tell us much about what's happening now. The dates reach back that far, so I'd lean on current form rather than those old scores.

The counter-argument? Pisa did pick up a point at Hellas Verona on 25 October, and they've scored in four of their last five. Their xG against is just 0.8 per game over the last five, which suggests their defence has been solid recently. And the market has them as slight favourites at 2.67, which tells you the bookies see something in Pisa's home setup that the raw numbers don't fully capture. There's a case that a side conceding 1.65 per game at home can still get a result against a side that's scoring 2.5 a game.

But I'm not convinced. Palermo's form is too good, the gap in the home/away comparison is too wide, and Pisa's home record over 20 games is simply too poor to trust. When a side is winning four in a row and the opposition haven't won 40% of their home games, you've got to go with the momentum.

Key Points:

• Palermo have won their last 4 games, scoring 10 and conceding 4

• Palermo's away record (7W 7D 6L in 20) beats Pisa's home record (4W 3D 13L in 20) on most metrics

• Pisa haven't kept a clean sheet in 20 home games

• The head-to-head is historical (last meeting January 2025) and doesn't reflect current form

• Palermo's xG of 2.39 per game vs Pisa's 2.06 shows the attacking edge

My pick: away win for Palermo at 2.9.