Pisa vs Palermo Prediction

Palermo arrive at Pisa's ground riding a remarkable run. Their last 10 matches have produced 9 wins and 1 draw — no defeats — with 2.5 goals scored per game and just 1.0 conceded. The current run is four straight wins, 10 goals scored and 4 conceded. Even their away record over 20 games (7W 7D 6L, 1.4 points per game) sits comfortably above Pisa's home record, which reads 4W 3D 13L over 20 games at 0.75 points per game. That is the single most telling comparison in this fixture.

Pisa's home numbers are the real concern. In 20 home games they have scored 1.1 per game and conceded 1.65, with zero clean sheets in that span. Their last 10 across all venues shows 4W 3D 3L. Their most recent result was a 1–1 draw at Hellas Verona on 25 October, and their most recent home result was a 3–1 win over Cremonese on 17 October. Before that, they won 3–0 at Vicenza on 10 October. The 0–3 Coppa Italia loss to Fiorentina on 15 September is the only defeat in the last five. Pisa's xG figures in the last five games with data show 2.06 per game for and 0.8 per game against, suggesting their output is decent and their defence is performing in line with expectation. But those wins came against Vicenza and Cremonese, and the 1–1 draw at Verona came with a late red card to the opposition.

The head-to-head is entirely historical. The most recent meeting was in January 2025, and the others are two or more years old. Pisa won four of those seven, but those results carry no weight for current form. The dates confirm older games dilute current form, so I'm leaning on what both teams are doing now.

Palermo's xG numbers back up the results: 2.39 per game for and 1.48 per game against across five recent matches. Their attack is firing and their defence is compact. Against a side that has scored 2.5 per game and conceded 1.0 over the last 10, Pisa's home record of 13 losses in 20 games is the number that should worry them. The market prices Palermo at 34.48% implied, but the form gap between a team with 9 wins in 10 games and a side that has lost 13 of 20 at home is hard to ignore. The odds at 2.9 for the away win look short of where the evidence points.

Key Points:

• Palermo: 9W 1D 0L in last 10; 4W 1D 0L in last 5; current run of 4 wins (10 scored, 4 conceded)

• Palermo away (20 games): 7W 7D 6L, 1.4 ppg; Pisa home (20 games): 4W 3D 13L, 0.75 ppg

• Head-to-head is entirely historical (most recent meeting January 2025); no meetings within 12 months

• Palermo scored 2.5 per game and conceded 1.0 in last 10; Pisa scored 1.6 and conceded 1.4

• Market prices Palermo at 34.48% implied; the form gap suggests a higher true probability

Verdict: I'm backing the away win.