Wigan vs Reading Prediction

Look, I'll be honest with you — this one's got a lekker story to tell, and it's not the home team's.

Wigan have been through the wringer of late. Their last five games read like a braai that went wrong: a 0-1 loss at Stevenage on 10 October, a 3-2 win over Blackpool at home in the EFL Trophy on 22 September, a 0-1 defeat to Wycombe at home on 19 September, a 0-0 draw at Sheffield Wednesday on 12 September, and a 0-4 thrashing by Stockport County at home on 5 September. One win, one draw, three losses. They scored three goals in those five and conceded eight. Four of those five games ended with Wigan failing to score at all.

Reading, on the other hand, have been cooking. Their last five: a 0-2 loss to Chelsea U21 at home in the EFL Trophy on 13 October, a 5-1 away hammering of Milton Keynes Dons on 10 October, a 1-1 draw with Bradford at home on 3 October, a 2-2 draw at Wycombe on 26 September, and a 2-0 win over Notts County at home on 19 September. Two wins, two draws, one loss. Ten goals scored, six conceded. That's a team with a bit of fire in the engine.

Now look at the venue numbers. Over their last 20 away games, Reading have won 9, drawn 6 and lost 5, averaging 1.65 points per game, scoring 1.55 a game and conceding just 0.9. Wigan at home over 20 games: 9 wins, 2 draws, 9 losses, 1.45 points per game, 1.15 scored and 1.25 conceded. Reading's away record is the better one on every meaningful measure — more points, more goals, fewer conceded.

The head-to-head in the last 12 months tells the same story. Reading beat Wigan 3-0 at their own ground on 28 March and won 2-1 at Wigan's on 10 February. Both recent meetings, Reading took the points. The older meetings go back two years and are historical record only.

The counter-argument, and I'll give Wigan their due: they did beat Blackpool 3-2 at home in the EFL Trophy, and their 20-game home record does show 9 wins. They're not a team that folds at home every week. And that 0-2 loss to Chelsea U21 for Reading, while an EFL Trophy game, does show they can be vulnerable. But that's a U21 side, not a League One opponent, so I'm not losing sleep over it.

The xG numbers back it up too. Reading's xG for in their last two games with data was 3.18 per game, and they actually scored 10 in those two. Wigan's xG for was 1.46 per game across three games, and they scored zero in that stretch. That's a gap you can see with your naked eye.

Key Points:

• Reading's last five: 2W 2D 1L, 10 scored, 6 conceded. Wigan's last five: 1W 1D 3L, 3 scored, 8 conceded.

• Reading's 20-game away record: 9W 6D 5L, 1.65 ppg. Wigan's 20-game home record: 9W 2D 9L, 1.45 ppg.

• Reading won both recent head-to-head meetings: 3-0 at Reading, 2-1 at Wigan.

• Wigan failed to score in 4 of their last 5 matches.

• Reading's xG for (3.18 per game) compares with Wigan's (1.46 per game) in recent data.

So here's my call: the away win. The form, the away record, the head-to-head, the scoring numbers — it all points the same way. I'm backing Reading to win at 2.12.