EV Calculator
Calculate Expected Value (EV) to identify value bets. Compare bookmaker odds with your own probability estimates to find positive expectation opportunities.
Expected Value Calculator
Enter odds and your estimated probability to calculate EV
Accepts decimal (2.50), American (+150, -200), or fractional (5/2) odds
Enter your own probability estimate to calculate expected value
Understanding Expected Value
What is Expected Value?
Expected Value (EV) measures the average return you can expect from a bet if you placed it many times. A positive EV (+EV) indicates a profitable bet in the long run, while negative EV (-EV) suggests you'll lose money over time.
The Formula
EV = (Probability of Win × Amount Won) − (Probability of Loss × Amount Lost)
For a unit stake, this simplifies to comparing your probability estimate against the bookmaker's implied probability.
Positive EV (+EV)
Your estimated probability is higher than the bookmaker's implied probability. These bets are profitable long-term.
Negative EV (-EV)
The bookmaker's odds don't offer enough value for your estimated probability. Avoid these bets for long-term profit.
Common EV Examples
| Odds | Implied % | Your Estimate | EV | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.00 | 50% | 55% | +0.10 | Value bet ✓ |
| 2.00 | 50% | 45% | −0.10 | Avoid ✗ |
| 3.00 | 33.3% | 40% | +0.20 | Strong value ✓ |
| 1.50 | 66.7% | 60% | −0.10 | Poor value ✗ |
| 4.00 | 25% | 30% | +0.20 | Value bet ✓ |
Tips for Finding Value
- •Specialise: Focus on specific leagues or markets where you can develop better knowledge than the bookmakers.
- •Line shop: Compare odds across multiple bookmakers—small differences significantly impact EV.
- •Be realistic: Accurate probability estimation comes from tracking your predictions over time.
- •Bankroll management: Even +EV bets can have losing streaks—never stake more than you can afford to lose.
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