Aberdeen host ST Mirren at their ground on 17 October in the Premiership, and the numbers paint a picture that should make the home side favourites. Aberdeen's record at home over the last 20 games is 11 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses, with 1.55 goals scored per game and just 0.9 conceded. ST Mirren's away record over the same span is 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses, with 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded per game. The gap in points per game — 1.8 to 1.3 — and the clean-sheet counts (8 to 5) tell a consistent story: Aberdeen are the stronger side on this ground.
The most compelling evidence, however, is ST Mirren's current form. Their last five matches span from 2 September to 10 October and contain four losses and one win. They have scored just two goals in those five games and conceded 11. The 0–5 defeat at Heart of Midlothian on 10 October, the 0–3 home loss to Dundee United on 19 September, the 0–1 at Rangers on 9 September and the 1–2 at home to Celtic on 5 September form a sequence that is hard to ignore. Their only positive result was a 1–0 away win at Kilmarnock on 2 September, six weeks ago. The current run line confirms it: ST Mirren have lost their last four, conceding 11 and scoring 1.
Aberdeen's own recent form is less dominant. Their last five matches (12 September to 11 October) bring 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss. The 0–1 home defeat to ST Johnstone on 11 October, six days before this fixture, is a blemish, but the 4–1 away win at Dunfermline and the 4–0 away win at Motherwell show the team can still produce decisive performances. Their home record over 20 games remains the anchor: 11 wins from 20, with 8 clean sheets.
The counter-argument is the head-to-head at this specific venue. In the two recent meetings at Aberdeen's ground, the scores were 0–2 (ST Mirren won, 12 May 2026) and 3–3 (draw, 3 December 2025). Aberdeen have not won at home against ST Mirren in those two fixtures. Across all four recent meetings at both venues, ST Mirren won two, Aberdeen won one and one was a draw. That is a genuine concern for anyone backing the home side, and it is the reason I cannot call this a certainty.
The xG data adds a layer of caution. Aberdeen's xG for across three recent games with data totals 2.34 (0.78 per game), with actual goals of 0 on those same games. ST Mirren's xG against across five recent games totals 8.17 (1.63 per game), with 8 actual goals conceded. The defensive vulnerability is real, but so is Aberdeen's recent inability to convert chances.
Key Points:
- Aberdeen's home record over 20 games: 11W 3D 6L, 1.55 scored per game, 0.9 conceded per game.
- ST Mirren have lost their last four matches, scoring 1 and conceding 11.
- At Aberdeen's ground, the last two H2H meetings produced a 0–2 ST Mirren win and a 3–3 draw.
- ST Mirren's away record over 20 games: 7W 5D 8L, 1.3 points per game.
- Aberdeen's only recent loss was 0–1 at home to ST Johnstone on 11 October.
The case for Aberdeen is strong on the numbers, but the head-to-head at this venue and the 0–1 result six days ago keep this from being the kind of fixture I can stake on with full conviction. The available prices do not offer a margin I can accept at this level of uncertainty. No Bet.
