Right, folks, The Big O is back and I'm itching for a goal fest, but this one's got me scratching my head. Aberdeen host ST Mirren on 17 October in the Premiership, and while I'm always hunting for that big number on the scoreboard, the evidence here is a bit of a tug-of-war.
Let's start with what's got my pulse racing. ST Mirren's defence has been leaking goals at an alarming rate. They've lost their last four games, conceding 11 in the process. Their last outing was a 0–5 thrashing at Hearts, and before that they were beaten 0–3 at home by Dundee Utd. When a side is conceding at that rate, the total starts to tick upward, and I love that. Their away record over the last 20 games also tells a story of open play: 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded per game, which puts the expected total right around three goals. Add in the fact that their xG against has been 1.63 per game over the last five matches, and you've got a side being pushed around and creating plenty of chances for the opposition.
On the other side, Aberdeen's home record over 20 games shows 1.55 goals scored per game and 0.9 conceded, which puts the expected total just under 2.5. Their last five games have seen them score 10 and concede 4 – 2.8 goals per game in total. That's a decent baseline, and the 4–0 win at Motherwell and the 4–1 friendly at Dunfermline show they can put numbers on the board.
But here's where it gets tricky for the Big O. Aberdeen's xG for has been a meagre 0.78 per game over the last three matches with data, and they just lost 0–1 at home to ST Johnstone on 11 October. ST Mirren's scoring has been equally quiet – 0.4 goals per game in their last five, with three of those ending in a blank. The head-to-head at Dons' ground over the last 12 months has been 0–2 and 3–3, so one low-scoring affair and one goal-fest. The recent meetings overall – four within 12 months – have produced 2, 2, 6 and 1 goals, with three of the four under 2.5.
The counter-argument that keeps me from pulling the trigger is simple: both teams' recent scoring output is poor. Aberdeen's xG for is under 1 per game, ST Mirren are scoring 0.4 per game, and the most recent meeting at this ground was a 0–2. The home record over 20 games has been under 2.5 in 12 of 20, and the away record for ST Mirren has been under in 11 of 20. The defensive collapse is real, but so is the scoring drought on both ends.
Key Points:
- ST Mirren have lost their last four, conceding 11 goals and scoring just 1 in that run
- Aberdeen's home record over 20 games: 1.55 scored, 0.9 conceded per game – expected total just under 2.5
- Recent head-to-head at Aberdeen's ground: 0–2 and 3–3 – one under, one over
- Aberdeen's xG for has been 0.78 per game over the last three matches with data
- ST Mirren's away record over 20 games: 1.5 scored, 1.5 conceded per game – expected total around 3.0
The Big O's verdict: I'd love to jump on the over here, but the scoring drought on both sides and the under-heavy home record keep my estimate just shy of where I need it to be. The available prices on the over don't offer enough value at my confidence level, so this one's a No Bet. Life's too short for nil-nil, but it's also too short for a bad bet.
ScotlandPremiership
