Preview
Look, I'll be upfront with you - this fixture has the smell of a home win on it, and I'm not talking about the boerewors I had. Cuiaba at home against Avai away is a setup that makes my eyes light up.
Cuiaba's home record over their last 20 games tells the story: 8 wins, 8 draws, 4 losses, with 1.6 points per game. They score 1.15 per game at home and concede just 0.7, keeping 10 clean sheets in those 20 fixtures. And their last two home games? 2-0 against Ponte Preta and 3-0 against Nautico Recife. That's two shut-the-door wins in a row, and the kind of performance that makes you reach for the beer before the match even kicks off. In their last five matches overall, Cuiaba have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1, scoring 6 and conceding 4, with 3 clean sheets.
Now look at Avai on the road. Over 20 away games, they've managed 4 wins, 3 draws and 13 losses - 0.75 points per game. They concede 1.75 per game away and have kept just 2 clean sheets in 20 trips. In their last five matches, they've lost three, conceded 8 goals and kept zero clean sheets. That's not a team that travels well, bra. Their only recent win was a 2-1 over Londrina at home four days ago, but on the road the numbers are brutal.
The head-to-head is mostly historical. The only meeting within the last 12 months was at Avai's ground three months ago, which Avai won 1-0. At Cuiaba's ground, the older meetings show a 2-2 draw and a 1-0 Cuiaba win. So there's no recent pattern to lean on here, and the current form and venue records carry the weight.
The counter-argument? Avai did pick up that 2-1 win over Londrina just four days ago, and they've scored in 3 of their last 5. Plus, that 1-0 H2H win at their own ground three months ago shows they can grind out a result against Cuiaba. But that was at their ground, and their away record over 20 games is 4W 3D 13L. The gap between Cuiaba's home numbers and Avai's away numbers is the biggest thing in this fixture.
Key Points:
- Cuiaba home: 8W 8D 4L in 20 games, 10 clean sheets, 0.7 conceded per game
- Avai away: 4W 3D 13L in 20 games, 2 clean sheets, 1.75 conceded per game
- Cuiaba's last two home games: 2-0 and 3-0 wins
- Avai lost 3 of their last 5, conceding 8 goals with 0 clean sheets
- H2H is dated; only 1 recent meeting (Avai 1-0 at their ground, 3 months ago)
My verdict: Cuiaba home win.
Match time