Righto, folks! Umery here, sniffing out the little puppies in this one. Deportivo La Coruna host Levante at their ground on 16 October 2026, and the market has the Galicians as the shorter-priced option. But I'm always looking for the overlooked angle, so let's dig in.
The case for the visitors starts with recent form. Levante have picked up one win, two draws and two losses from their last five, scoring 11 goals at 2.2 per game. Their most recent outing was a thrilling 3–3 draw with Sevilla at home on 12 October, where they showed real attacking intent. Deportivo La Coruna, by contrast, have won just none of their last five — two draws and three losses — and they've lost their last two matches, conceding six goals in the process. Their home form has been shaky: a 1–3 defeat to FC Porto on 2 October and a 0–1 loss to Sevilla on 16 September, with a 1–1 draw against Real Betis in between.
Levante's xG numbers back up the attacking picture: 1.45 per game across their last five matches with xG data, compared to Deportivo's 1.25. And the most recent head-to-head meeting, back in January 2025, ended 2–1 to Levante at Deportivo La Coruna's ground. That's a small but encouraging note for the visitors, though the entire head-to-head record is historical and spans 12 years, so it tells us little about how these two sides will actually play in 2026.
Now, the counter-argument is substantial. Levante's away record over the last 20 games is 4 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses, with just 0.8 goals scored per game and 11 of those 20 matches ending without them finding the net. That's a real concern when you're travelling to a team that has won 9 of their last 20 home games, averaging 1.55 points per game and conceding only 1.1 per match. Deportivo's home defence has been the steadier element, and with no meetings within the last 12 months, the head-to-head carries no current-form weight.
The goal markets are interesting too. Levante have had four of their last five games go over 2.5 goals, while Deportivo have had three under. Both teams' BTTS records in the last five show four yeses each, suggesting goals will flow on both ends.
Key Points:
- Levante's recent form (1W 2D 2L, 2.2 goals per game) edges out Deportivo's struggling run (0W 2D 3L, 1.0 goals per game)
- Levante's away record is poor: 4W 4D 12L in 20 games, failing to score in 11 of them
- Deportivo's home record is solid: 9W 4D 7L, 1.55 points per game, 1.1 conceded per game
- The head-to-head is entirely historical (most recent meeting January 2025), so current form and venue records carry the weight
- Both teams' last five games show four BTTS yeses each, pointing to an open match
In the end, I can't find a clean underdog angle here. Levante's recent form is encouraging, but their away record is a genuine worry, and the available prices don't offer the kind of value I look for when the evidence is this split. The draw is tempting given both teams' struggles, but I can't honestly rate it at a level I'd feel comfortable recommending. I'll sit this one out and keep my eyes on the next little puppy worth backing.
No bet.
