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Deportivo La Coruna host Levante on 16 October in a La Liga fixture where the scoring patterns offer the most compelling angle I can find, but the form on both sides keeps my hand firmly off the trigger.
The case for goals is the strongest thread in this one. Levante's last five matches produced over 2.5 goals in four of those five, and their away record over 20 games sees 9 of 20 finish with three or more goals. Deportivo La Coruna's home record over 20 games also shows 9 of 20 going over the line. Both teams' expected goals data from recent matches points to active scoring: Deportivo La Coruna have generated 1.25 xG per game on the attack and faced 1.54 xG per game on the defence across four recent games, while Levante have produced 1.45 xG per game and faced 1.57 xG per game across five. The head-to-head, while entirely historical — no meetings within the last 12 months — saw over 2.5 goals in 6 of 10 encounters and both teams scoring in 6 of 10.
The counter-argument, and the one that keeps me from pulling the trigger, is the state of both teams' recent form. Deportivo La Coruna have won none of their last five matches, drawing two and losing three, and they have lost their last two in a row, conceding six goals in those two games. At home over their last three home games, the results have been a 1–3 loss to FC Porto, a 1–1 draw with Real Betis, and a 0–1 defeat to Sevilla. Levante, meanwhile, have lost 12 of their last 20 away games, scoring just 0.8 per game on the road. Their most recent outing was a 3–3 draw with Sevilla at home, but before that they lost 1–3 at Villarreal and 2–4 to Barcelona. Neither side is in a position to be favoured with confidence.
The head-to-head here is dated. The five most recent meetings all predate the last 12 months, stretching back to January 2025 and earlier, and the full record spans 12 years. I will not treat those results as current form. What they do tell us is that this fixture has historically produced goals, but that is a historical footnote, not a trend I can build a bet on.
Key Points:
- Deportivo La Coruna have won 0 of their last 5, losing the last 2 and conceding 6 in those games.
- Levante have lost 12 of their last 20 away matches, averaging 0.8 goals scored per game on the road.
- Both teams scored in 4 of their last 5 matches, and over 2.5 goals occurred in 4 of Levante's last 5.
- The head-to-head is entirely historical, with no meetings within the last 12 months.
- Neither team's recent form gives me the confidence to back a specific outcome at the available prices.
I have looked at every angle — the home record, the away record, the scoring patterns, the expected goals data — and I cannot find an outcome I rate with the confidence I require in this fixture. The football does not give me the certainty I need, and the prices on the board do not offer the margin to change my mind. If it's not certain, it's not happening. No Bet.
