Look, I love a good braai, but this one's got me scratching my head. Deportivo La Coruna are hosting Levante on 16 October, and the numbers paint two very different pictures.
The strongest case for the home side comes from the venue records. Over 20 home games, Deportivo La Coruna have won 9, drawn 4 and lost 7, averaging 1.55 points per game. They score 1.25 per match and concede 1.1. Now look at Levante's away record over 20 games: 4 wins, 4 draws, 12 losses at 0.8 points per game. They score 0.8 per game and concede 1.65. In this specific home-versus-away context, the gap is clear. Deportivo La Coruna have failed to score in only 5 of those 20 home games, while Levante have gone blank in 11 of their 20 away fixtures. The matchup table simply does not show Levante as a team that thrives on the road.
But here's where it gets tricky, and I hate to leave a man hanging. Deportivo La Coruna's last five games are ugly. Zero wins, two draws, three losses. They lost 2-3 at Real Sociedad just five days ago, lost 1-3 to FC Porto at home, and lost 0-1 to Sevilla at home. Their current run is two straight losses with 3 goals scored and 6 conceded. That is not the picture the home record paints. Levante, on the other hand, have 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last five, including a 3-3 draw with Sevilla four days before kickoff. They scored 2.2 per game in that stretch and 4 of those 5 went over 2.5 goals. So the visitors arrive with more recent fire in the belly, even if their away record is poor.
The head-to-head is entirely historical. There are no meetings within 12 months of this kickoff. The five older meetings span back to 2016, with 3 wins for each side and 4 draws. At Deportivo La Coruna's ground specifically, the record from those older games is 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss. That tells you nothing about what happens on 16 October. I'd rather lean on the current form and the venue records than dig through a decade-old fixture list.
The goal market is genuinely split. Both teams' venue records show 9 of 20 games over 2.5 goals. Levante's last five has 4 over, but Deportivo La Coruna's last five has only 2 over, with 3 under. The xG data from recent games suggests a combined expectation of roughly 2.7 to 3.1 total goals, which sits right on the 2.5 line. I cannot honestly say I'm above the 50% mark for either side of that market.
Key Points:
- Deportivo La Coruna's home record (9W 4D 7L, 1.55 ppg) is significantly stronger than Levante's away record (4W 4D 12L, 0.8 ppg)
- Deportivo La Coruna have lost their last two matches and won none in their last five
- Levante's last five games include 4/5 over 2.5 goals, with 2.2 goals scored per game
- The head-to-head is entirely historical, with no meetings within the last 12 months
- Both teams' venue records show 9/20 games over 2.5 goals, leaving the total-goals market genuinely split
In the end, the home record says Deportivo La Coruna should be favourites, but their recent form says they are not the team the record describes. I cannot put my name behind any of the available prices with the confidence this fixture demands. No Bet.
