There's something endearing about Nottingham Forest walking into this one. The little guy, the underdog, the team the bookmakers have priced at 6.15 to win. And honestly? I get it. There's a thread of hope here if you look at the right numbers.
Forest's home record over their last 20 games at their ground tells a story of a team that can be stubborn. Seven wins, seven draws, six losses. They've kept clean sheets in 8 of those 20 home games and conceded just 0.7 goals per game. That's a side that can shut things down, and the most recent meeting between these two sides — back in January at Forest's ground — ended 0–0. Arsenal didn't find the door that day, and Forest held firm.
There's also a flicker in Forest's xG numbers. Across three recent games where that data is available, Forest have generated 2.1 expected goals per game. They're creating chances; the problem has been finishing. In their last five matches, they've scored just 5 goals and conceded 7, and they've failed to score in two of those five. The 0–0 draw with Tottenham at home on 5 September showed they can park the bus, and the 2–2 draw at Liverpool on 29 August showed they can compete with the big names.
But here's where I have to be honest with you, folks. The counter-argument is enormous, and I can't pretend it isn't.
Arsenal's away record over their last 20 games is 12 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses. That's 2.05 points per game. In their last 10 matches across all competitions, they've won 9, drawn 0, and lost 1. Their current run is two wins, scoring 5 and conceding just 1. Their xG against across five recent games is 0.4 per game — that's an elite defensive unit. They've scored 11 goals in those five xG-tracked games while conceding only 2.
The head-to-head, while mostly historical, paints a familiar picture. Of 12 meetings spanning nine years, Arsenal have won 7, Forest have won 3, and there have been 2 draws. Forest have failed to score in 7 of those 12. The only meeting within the last 12 months was that 0–0 at Forest's ground in January.
Forest's last two matches have been losses — 1–3 at Crystal Palace on 11 October and 0–1 at home to Coventry on 19 September. That's 1 goal scored and 4 conceded. Their latest 10 across all venues: 3 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses.
I love a dog. I root for the pup every single time. But I can't find value here. My honest read on Forest's chance of winning is in the low teens — around 13 to 14 percent. The market has them at 16.26 percent, and I think that's about right, maybe even a touch generous given how poorly Forest have been scoring. The price at 6.15 doesn't offer the value I need to feel comfortable putting money down.
Key Points:
- Forest's home record (7W 7D 6L, 0.7 conceded per game) shows they can be difficult at their ground
- The only recent H2H meeting (January 2026) was a 0–0 draw at Forest's ground
- Arsenal's away record (12W 5D 3L) and latest 10 (9W 0D 1L) are dominant
- Forest lost their last two matches and failed to score in 5 of their last 10
- Arsenal's xG against is 0.4 per game across five recent matches
No bet.
