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Oldham's home record tells a clear story. Across 20 home games dating back to January, they have won 11, drawn 3 and lost 6, averaging 1.8 points per game. Their defence at home has been the standout feature: 0.95 goals conceded per game and 11 clean sheets in 20. That is a solid record in League Two, and it sets the tone for what Cheltenham face at this ground.
Cheltenham's away record, by contrast, is far less encouraging. Over 20 away games, they have won 6, drawn 6 and lost 8, averaging 1.2 points per game. They concede 1.6 goals per game on the road and have managed just 5 clean sheets in 20. Their recent form across all venues has been poor: 1 win, 2 draws and 2 losses in their last five, with no clean sheets in that stretch. Two of those defeats came with a red card on the board — one in the 78th minute against Salford City and one in the 90th minute against Accrington ST — which complicates any reading of their underlying performance.
The head-to-head at this venue is thin but supportive of Oldham. The only meeting within the last 12 months was on 17 January, when Oldham won 2–1 at home. Older meetings at this ground are historical record only, and the most recent of those in 2020 also saw Oldham win 2–1. There have been no recent meetings at Cheltenham's ground.
The counter-argument is that Oldham's recent form is not as dominant as their home record suggests. In their last five games, they have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2, including a 1–4 defeat to Salford City at home on 26 September and a 0–0 draw with Accrington ST on 10 October. Their most recent result, a 4–2 win over Leeds United U21 in the EFL Trophy, is encouraging but comes against a U21 side. Cheltenham, meanwhile, have scored in 3 of their last 5 games, and their away record, while poor, does include 6 wins in 20.
Key Points:
- Oldham's home record: 11W 3D 6L in 20 games, 0.95 conceded per game, 11 clean sheets
- Cheltenham's away record: 6W 6D 8L in 20 games, 1.6 conceded per game, 5 clean sheets
- Recent head-to-head at Oldham's ground: Oldham won 2–1 on 17 January
- Oldham's last 5: 2W 1D 2L, including a 1–4 home loss to Salford City
- Cheltenham's last 5: 1W 2D 2L, with red cards affecting two results
The football points toward Oldham, and the home record is strong. But the recent form on both sides is mixed, and the margin between the two is not wide enough for me to call this a certainty. When the evidence does not give me the confidence I need, I pass. No Bet.
