Dutching Explained: Calculator, Strategy and How to Dutch Bet

You've done the homework on a big-field handicap and whittled it down to three realistic winners. But which one? Backing a single horse feels like a coin flip with your own money. Dutching is the neat way out: back all three, size the stakes so the profit is the same whichever one wins, and suddenly your opinion is a proper bet.

It isn't a free lunch, and we'll be straight about the catch. But it's one of the most useful tools in a serious punter's kit, and our free dutching calculator does the stake-splitting in a second. By the end of this guide you'll know exactly what it's doing under the bonnet.

Dutching means backing more than one selection in the same event and splitting your total stake so every selection returns the same amount. Shorter-priced picks get a bigger share of the money, longer-priced ones a smaller share, all worked out in proportion to the odds.

The name is usually pinned on Dutch Schultz, the Prohibition-era gangster Arthur Flegenheimer, who is said to have worked the method at the racetrack. It's a cracking story, though nobody can prove it, so file it under folklore. What matters is the idea, and it boils down to four points:

• You back several outcomes rather than one.
• The profit is the same whichever one wins, because the stakes do the balancing.
• Your risk is spread, not removed. You win more often, but each win is smaller.
• If none of your picks wins, every stake is lost. That's the catch, and the reason a dutch is only as good as the opinion behind it.

Don't worry, there's no scary algebra. Every price carries an implied probability, which is simply the chance the odds are suggesting. Divide 1 by the decimal odds and there it is: 4.00 implies 25%, 2.00 implies 50%. Add up the implied probabilities of your selections and you have the "book percentage", and each selection's stake is just its slice of that total.

Everything needs to be in decimal first. Fractional odds convert by dividing and adding one, so 5/1 is 6.00 and 11/4 is 3.75. If you ever meet American odds, +300 becomes 4.00 and -200 becomes 1.50.

Say you fancy two runners in a competitive handicap: Horse A at 4.50 and Horse B at 6.00 (illustrative prices), with 100 units to play with.

Their implied probabilities are 1 / 4.50 = 22.22% and 1 / 6.00 = 16.67%, which add up to 38.89%. Horse A's slice of that total is 0.2222 / 0.3889, so it gets 57.14 units, and Horse B takes the other 42.86.

Now check the books. If Horse A wins, 57.14 x 4.50 returns 257.13 units. If Horse B wins, 42.86 x 6.00 returns 257.16. Either way you're about 157 units up on the 100 staked, and that 0.03 gap is just rounding.

That 38.89% is the number to watch. The lower the book percentage, the bigger the payout when one of your picks lands. It also tells you the bar your opinion has to clear: this pair needs to win more than 38.89% of the time to be worth backing, which is the real test of whether you've found value.

Now a bigger one. Picture a tight, low-scoring match and four correct scores you like, again at illustrative prices, with 100 units to spread.

The four probabilities add up to 44.92%, so each stake is its share of that total, and whichever score turns up you collect about 222.6 units. That's a profit of roughly 122.6 on the 100 staked.

It's also a great test of your own judgement. If the match finishes 0-0 or 3-1, all 100 units are gone, so the question is whether you genuinely believe those four scores cover better than 45% of the likely outcomes. If you do, the maths is on your side. If you're not sure, trim the list.

Not every dutch is built the same way, and the right one depends on what you want to control.

Equal profit

The standard approach, and the one in both examples above. Stakes are sized so every selection returns the same amount, which makes results easy to track and compare. Most calculators default to it.

Equal stake

The same amount on every pick, no calculator needed. The catch is that the profit swings depending on which one wins. Ten units on Horse A at 6.00 and ten on Horse B at 8.00 costs 20 in total: if A wins you collect 60 (a profit of 40), and if B wins you collect 80 (a profit of 60). It works when the prices are close together and feels clumsy when they aren't.

Set stake

You fix the outlay, say £50 for the race, and let the calculator carve it up. Ideal when you have a strict budget per event.

Set profit

You start from the profit you want. Divide your target by the combined odds minus one, where combined odds are 1 divided by the sum of the implied probabilities. In the two-horse example the combined odds are about 2.57, so a profit of 100 units needs roughly 64 units staked in total. Handy for hitting a target or clearing a bonus.

Dutching suits events with a handful of live contenders and prices that look a touch generous on them. The classic home is a wide-open race, such as a big-field handicap where you can narrow it down to three or four but not to one. Our each-way guide covers the place side of those races. Outright markets work too, whether that's a golf tournament with a handful of genuine contenders or a tennis event with a few seeds in form, and so do correct scores and other markets where only a few outcomes are really in play.

Know when to leave it alone, too. If one outcome is a very strong favourite, you're sending good money after improbable alternatives. As the combined implied probability creeps up towards 100%, the profit shrinks to almost nothing, and a heavy bookmaker margin does the same. And the golden rule: dutching spreads value you've already found, it can't invent value that isn't there.

People mix these two up all the time. The difference is coverage: a dutch backs some of the outcomes, while arbitrage backs all of them at prices that lock in a profit.

Reach for a dutch when you have a view on two to four likely outcomes, want to stay with one bookmaker and care about keeping your account in good health. Reach for arbitrage when the book percentage across bookmakers drops below 100% and you have funded accounts ready to go, accepting that execution speed and account limits come with the territory. Cover every outcome at favourable prices and a dutch simply becomes an arb. That's the line between them.

What dutching does for you

The big win is a higher strike rate. Backing two to four selections instead of one means you collect far more often, which smooths the ups and downs of your bankroll and makes it much easier to stay disciplined through a rough patch. It's the same instinct behind portfolio betting: don't put every egg in one basket. It also lets you back two or three opinions in the same event without being forced to choose between them.

What it costs you

Every extra selection lowers your combined odds, so the profit on each win shrinks. A two-runner dutch pays better than a five-runner one covering the same ground. To make the same absolute profit you also need a bigger outlay than a single bet would take, and exchange commission (typically 2-5%) bites into slim margins.

There's an operational side as well. Prices can move between your first and last bet, which throws the sums off, and a slip in the arithmetic changes your profit. A good calculator and a bit of speed take care of most of it.

Choosing selections

Only include runners you would be happy to back on their own. Adding a long-shot "for insurance" just waters down the value, and it's the most common way a good dutch goes wrong. The sweet spot is two to four selections: two give the best margins, three or four give more coverage for less profit per win, and five or more rarely leave enough value to be worth it.

Placing the bets

Let a calculator do the maths, and check its output against the worked examples above the first time you use it. Have your accounts funded before you start, because prices can move quickly, particularly in running. Round stakes to sensible figures too: 48 or 50 units is far easier to place and track than 47.83, and the small change in profit is a fair swap. On an exchange, put commission into the calculation from the start.

On bankroll, a sensible rule of thumb is no more than 5% of your total on one dutch, dropping to 2-3% when you're covering lots of selections. Log every dutch, with stakes, odds and results, so you can see whether your strike rate is matching your expectations.

Slips to avoid

• Over-dutching. More selections mean smaller profits, and a better strike rate rarely makes up for it.
• Ignoring value. Poor prices lose money over time, spread or not.
• Emotional picks. A runner you like the look of but can't justify belongs outside the dutch.
• Slow execution. If prices shift mid-dutch, your sums no longer add up, so place the bets within seconds of each other.

Reverse dutching

On a betting exchange you can do it the other way round and lay several outcomes, sizing the lay stakes so your loss is the same whichever laid runner wins. If none of them does, you pocket the stakes. It suits those moments when you're confident certain results won't happen, and our lay betting guide shows how the exchange side works.

In-play dutching

The same idea applied to live markets. Prices move fast, so you'll want a calculator open and accounts funded, and the execution risk is higher. It's a job for experienced bettors who are comfortable making quick calls.

Each-way dutching

In racing you can dutch the win part and the place part separately, working out each set of stakes on its own. It's fiddlier, but in a competitive handicap it can uncover real value.

You don't have to do any of this by hand. Our own dutching calculator splits your stake across as many selections as you like, and AceOdds has a long-standing free calculator that handles both fixed-stake and target-profit modes. If you're deep into bonus-clearing, the matched-betting services described in our promotions guide build dutching tools into their software, and Bet Angel is a popular trading package for people who already work the Betfair exchange.

Is dutching legal?

Yes, completely. You're just placing several bets on different outcomes.

Does dutching guarantee a profit?

No. If none of your selections wins, you lose every stake. The method gives you equal profit across your picks when one of them wins. Cover all the outcomes at favourable prices and you're into arbitrage territory instead.

How many selections should I use?

Two is the minimum, and two to four is the sweet spot. Beyond that the profit per win usually gets too thin.

Can I dutch in-play?

Yes, though it's trickier. Prices change quickly, so you need a calculator ready and your accounts funded.

What if the odds change halfway through?

Recalculate the remaining stakes at the new prices, accept a different profit from the one you planned, or stop and rethink. The first option is usually best if you've only placed one bet.

Is dutching better than single bets?

It depends what you want. Dutching gives a higher strike rate, lower variance and smaller profits per bet. Singles give a lower strike rate, more variance and bigger wins when they land. Dutching suits bettors who like consistency, singles those chasing maximum upside.

• Back opinions, not hunches. A dutch is only as good as your read on the race, so every selection should earn its place.
• Stick to two to four runners. That's where coverage and profit balance out.
• Check the book percentage first. If your combined implied probability is higher than the chance you really think your picks have, walk away.
• Let the calculator do the work. Round the stakes sensibly and place the bets quickly.
• Mind the commission. On an exchange, 2-5% can wipe out a slim margin.
• Start with two-selection dutches. Build confidence before you move on to big fields.

Whatever you back, decide your stake before the race and stick to it, and only bet what you can afford to lose.

• Portfolio betting: diversify your sports bets like a pro
• Lay betting strategy: how to trade on Betfair
• How bookmakers detect arbitrage betting
• Each-way betting explained: the complete guide

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