Preview
Worthing's home record tells a story of consistency. Thirteen wins, four draws and just three defeats across 20 home games, with 1.95 goals scored per game and only 0.85 conceded. That is a side that arrives on 10 October knowing the ground is theirs. Four wins from their last five matches — a 2–1 over FC Halifax Town at home on 26 September, a 3–1 at Hartlepool, a 1–0 over AFC Hornchurch at home, and a 2–1 at Gateshead — paint a picture of a team in genuine rhythm. The force is with them, and the numbers do not lie.
Solihull Moors, by contrast, arrive with a cloud over their heads. Three defeats from their last five, including a 0–3 home loss to Boreham Wood and a 1–4 away to Yeovil Town. Their away record across 20 games reads 6 wins, 8 draws, 6 losses — 1.3 points per game, 1.6 conceded per game. They have failed to score in four of those 20 away outings. The 2–1 cup win over Newcastle United U21 on 6 October offered a brief flicker, but the league form tells a different tale. A moment of light, yes, but the darkness of the last three league defeats still lingers.
The head-to-head is a blank page — no meetings on record between these two sides. That means we lean entirely on the venue records and current form, and the numbers point firmly one way. Worthing's home numbers (2.15 points per game, 0.85 conceded) sit well above Solihull's away numbers (1.3 points per game, 1.6 conceded). In the latest 10 games across all venues, Worthing have scored 1.7 per game and conceded 1.4, while Solihull have scored 1.3 and conceded 2.1. The gap is clear, and it is not a small one.
The counter-argument, if one must be found, is that Solihull's last game was a win, and their away record does include 8 draws — meaning they are not without the ability to take a point on the road. Worthing's last home game saw them concede (2–1 to Halifax, with a red card in the 77th minute), and their clean-sheet count in the last 10 is only 2. A 1–1 or 2–2 is not beyond the realm of possibility. The dark side always whispers, you see.
But the weight of evidence — the home record, the recent form, the scoring and defensive numbers — tilts strongly toward the hosts. My own reading of the football puts Worthing's chances of a win at roughly 60%, which sits above the market's 54.95% implied by the 1.82 price. The numbers walk the path, and the wise bettor follows them.
Key Points:
- Worthing: 13W 4D 3L in 20 home games; 4W 1D in last 5
- Solihull Moors: 6W 8D 6L in 20 away games; 2W 3L in last 5
- No head-to-head meetings on record
- Worthing home: 1.95 scored, 0.85 conceded per game; Solihull away: 1.65 scored, 1.6 conceded
- Solihull failed to score in 4 of 20 away games
The wise path, the path the numbers walk, is the home win.
