Preview
Molde and Start kick off at Molde's ground on 18 October in the Eliteserien, and I'll be honest — the numbers here are making my mouth water like a good braai in the afternoon.
Molde's home record over 20 home games is 11 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses, with 2.2 goals scored per game and 1.2 conceded. Start's away record over 20 away games is 5 wins, 2 draws and 13 losses, with 1.4 scored and 2.4 conceded per game. That's a gap that's hard to bridge on the road, bro. Molde keep a clean sheet in 6 of those 20 home games; Start manage it just once in 20 away outings.
In the last 12 months, these two have met once — at Start's ground on 19 April 2026 — and it ended 1-1. The older head-to-head stretches back to 2016 and shows Molde winning 4 of 7 meetings with Start never winning, but those are historical results and I'm leaning on the current form.
Molde's last five: a 2-2 draw at Lillestrom on 11 October, a 3-0 friendly win over Kristiansund BK at home on 4 October, a 1-2 loss to Aalesund at home on 19 September, and two cup wins — 5-0 at Trygg/Lade and 5-1 at Ham-Kam in mid-September. Sixteen goals scored, five conceded. Start's last five: a 2-4 home loss to Ham-Kam on 11 October, a 5-1 cup win at Raufoss on 6 October, a 2-1 friendly win over Brann at home on 2 October, a 0-3 away loss to Sandefjord on 20 September (Start got a red card in the 56th minute), and a 3-2 cup win at Vindbjart on 16 September. Twelve scored, 11 conceded.
Now, the counter-argument. Molde's last two league games were a 2-2 draw at Lillestrom and a 1-2 loss to Aalesund at home, so they're not flying. Start, despite the poor away record, have won 6 of their last 10 across all venues. The 1-1 draw in April shows Start can compete. And Start's away record does show 17 of 20 games going over 2.5, so they're not a low-scoring team on the road.
But the xG picture is telling. In their last five games with xG data, Molde's expected goals for is 2.44 per game while their expected goals against is just 0.97. Start's xG for is 2.4 per game over three games with xG data, but their xG against is 2.03. That defensive vulnerability on the road, combined with Molde's home scoring, points to a high-scoring affair. Both teams went over 2.5 in all five of their last five matches — that's 10 out of 10, and it's hard to argue against.
Key Points:
- Molde's home record: 11W 3D 6L in 20 games, 2.2 scored per game
- Start's away record: 5W 2D 13L in 20 games, 2.4 conceded per game
- Both teams went over 2.5 in all 5 of their last 5 matches
- The only meeting in the last 12 months was a 1-1 draw at Start's ground
- Molde's xG against in recent games is 0.97 per game; Start's xG against is 2.03 per game
I'm going with over 2.5 goals at 1.36.
