Preview
Yoda Mc Yoda FaceThe Force is strong with this one, friends. Molde at home is a sight to behold, and Start on the road is a tale of woe. Let me tell you what I see in the numbers, for they do not lie, even when the heart wants them to.
Molde's home record over the last 20 games tells a story of dominance: 11 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses, with 2.2 goals scored per game and just 1.2 conceded. Their last 10 matches across all grounds show 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with a staggering 3.7 goals per game. In their last five matches, every single game went over 2.5 goals. The 3–0 win over Kristiansund BK at home two weeks ago, the 5–0 and 5–1 away victories in the cup, and the 2–2 draw at Lillestrom seven days ago all paint a picture of a side that scores freely and, at home, keeps things tidy. Their xG against sits at 0.97 per game over five matches — a defence that does not yield easily.
Now turn to Start on the road. Over 20 away games, they have won just 5, drawn 2 and lost 13. They score 1.4 per game away and concede 2.4. Their last five matches all went over 2.5 goals, and their most recent outing — a 2–4 defeat at home to Ham-Kam seven days ago — left them looking fragile. The 0–3 loss at Sandefjord four weeks ago, with a red card in the 56th minute, is another setback on the road. Yes, they beat Brann 2–1 in a friendly and won 5–1 at Raufoss in the cup, but those are not the same test as a top-flight away day.
The head-to-head is mostly historical — four older meetings all won by Molde, with scores of 5–0, 3–1, 2–3 and 1–3. The one recent meeting, back in April at Start's ground, ended 1–1. So the direct history is dated, and we must lean on current form and venue records. And those records point firmly one way.
But I must be wise, not reckless. Molde did draw their last league game 2–2 at Lillestrom, and they lost 1–2 to Aalesund at home four weeks ago. The only recent meeting between these two was a draw. Start have won three of their last five. A 1–1 or 2–2 scoreline is not out of the question, and the 1–1 in April reminds us that Start can find a way to stay in the game. The market prices the draw at 6.00, which tells you the bookmakers see it as a slim possibility, and I agree.
Yet when you look at the combined scoring — Molde averaging 3.7 per game in their last ten, Start averaging 2.0, with both teams' last five matches all crossing the 2.5 threshold — the case for goals is overwhelming. Over 2.5 has hit in 14 of Molde's last 20 home games and 17 of Start's last 20 away games. The evidence is clear, and it does not whisper. It roars.
Key Points:
- Molde have won 11 of their last 20 home games, scoring 2.2 per game and conceding 1.2
- Start have lost 13 of their last 20 away games, conceding 2.4 per game
- Both teams' last five matches all went over 2.5 goals
- The only recent head-to-head meeting (April 2026) ended 1–1
- Molde's xG against is 0.97 per game over five matches, showing a solid defensive base
The wise choice, friends, is to trust the numbers and the flow of the game. I recommend over 2.5 goals at 1.36.