Molde vs Start Prediction

Molde and Start are about to collide in the Eliteserien on 18 October, and let me tell you, folks, this one smells like a goal machine. I'm The Big O, and I live for exactly this kind of fixture — two teams that can't stop scoring, a defence that looks like it's on holiday, and a scoreboard that keeps climbing.

The numbers don't lie. Molde have hit over 2.5 goals in all five of their most recent matches — the 2–2 draw at Lillestrom, the 3–0 friendly win over Kristiansund BK, the 1–2 loss to Aalesund, and those two cup thrashings (5–0 at Trygg/Lade and 5–1 at Ham-Kam). Start, meanwhile, have done the exact same thing: five games, five times over 2.5. The 2–4 loss to Ham-Kam, the 5–1 cup win at Raufoss, the 2–1 friendly against Brann, the 0–3 defeat at Sandefjord, and the 3–2 cup win at Vindbjart. That's ten games across both squads where the total cleared three.

Now zoom out to the venue records. Over their last 20 home games, Molde have seen over 2.5 goals in 14 of them, scoring 2.2 per game and conceding 1.2. Start's away record over 20 games is even more one-sided: 17 of 20 went over 2.5, with the visitors scoring 1.4 per game but leaking 2.4. When you stack those two records together, the combined scoring rate is 3.6 goals per game. That's a comfortable cushion above the 2.5 line, not a coin-flip.

The head-to-head adds a little spice. The only meeting within the last 12 months was a 1–1 at Start's ground in April, which kept the score low. But the older meetings — going back to 2018 — tell a different story: Molde won four of those, with scores of 5–0, 3–1, 2–3, and 1–3. Those are historical, so I won't hang the world on them, but they do paint a picture of a fixture that tends to produce goals.

The counter-argument? Well, that April draw at 1–1 is the most recent meeting, and it sat under 2.5. Molde's home record does carry 6 games under 2.5 in 20, and Start's away record has 3. Also, Molde's xG against sits at just 0.97 per game over five of their recent games, which suggests their defence is tightening up. If Molde park the bus and Start struggle to break them down, you could see a tight 1–1 or 2–0. But honestly, that's a stretch when Molde are scoring 3.2 per game and Start 2.4 in their current form. My read is that the goals will come, and the market's 73.53% implied probability for over 2.5 underprices what I'm seeing in the numbers.

Key Points:

• Molde and Start both recorded over 2.5 goals in all five of their most recent matches.

• Molde's home record (14/20 over) and Start's away record (17/20 over) both lean heavily toward goals.

• Combined scoring rate from the venue records: 2.2 plus 1.4 equals 3.6 goals per game.

• The only recent head-to-head (April 2026) was a 1–1 draw, but older meetings show scores of 5–0, 3–1, 2–3 and 1–3.

• Start's away defence concedes 2.4 per game over 20 games — that's a leaky back line.

So here's my verdict: I'm going with over 2.5 goals at 1.36. The Big O doesn't do nil-nil, doesn't do 1–0, and doesn't do 0–0. This is a fixture where both teams are in goal-scoring mode, the defences are porous, and the scoreboard is going to keep ticking. Three goals is the floor, not the ceiling.