Molde vs Start Prediction

Molde and Start meet at Molde's ground on 18 October in the Eliteserien, and the numbers scream one thing: goals.

The case for a high-scoring affair is hard to argue against. Molde have gone over 2.5 in 14 of their last 20 home games, and Start have done the same in 17 of their last 20 away outings. More telling, both sides have crossed the 2.5 line in every one of their last five matches. Molde are scoring at 3.2 goals per game across their last five fixtures, while Start are conceding 2.4 per game on the road. The head-to-head adds another layer: five of the seven recorded meetings between these two clubs finished with three or more goals.

Molde's attacking output is the standout. Their xG for sits at 2.44 per game over the last five matches with data, and they've actually scored 12 goals in those same games. At home, they average 2.2 goals per game across 20 fixtures. Start's defence, meanwhile, has been a sieve on the road — 2.4 goals conceded per game away, with their xG against at 2.03 per game over the last three matches with data. They've managed just one clean sheet in 20 away games.

The counter-argument is the head-to-head's most recent chapter. The only meeting within the last 12 months, at Start's ground in April, ended 1–1. That's a reminder that Start can absorb pressure and that Molde's dominance in this fixture is largely a historical record — four wins in the older meetings, but the most recent one was a stalemate. Start also showed they can score, picking up 5–1 and 3–2 wins in cup games, and their xG for of 2.4 per game suggests they create enough to find a goal.

Still, the weight of evidence leans heavily toward a three-goal-plus game. Molde's home scoring, Start's away vulnerability, and the consistent over-2.5 pattern across both teams' recent form all point the same direction. The 1–1 draw in April is a single data point against a tide of high-scoring results.

Key Points:

• Molde have gone over 2.5 in 14 of 20 home games; Start in 17 of 20 away games

• Both teams' last five matches all finished with three or more goals

• Molde average 3.2 goals per game in their last five; Start concede 2.4 per game away

• The only recent head-to-head meeting (April 2026) was a 1–1 draw

• Start have managed just one clean sheet in 20 away games

The value is clear: I'm backing over 2.5 goals at 1.36.