There's something about a team like Start that gets my heart pumping every time. They're the little puppy trotting into a den where the big dogs have been feasting for years, and I love watching them try. But I have to be honest with you all: this one's a tough one to find value in.
Molde at home are the sort of side that make the underdog's job genuinely hard. Over their last 20 home games, they've won 11, drawn 3 and lost 6, scoring 2.2 goals per game while conceding just 1.2. Their xG against sits at 0.97 per game across their last five matches with data, which tells you the defensive wall is real. In their last five games across all venues, Molde have won three, drawn one and lost one, scoring 16 goals and conceding just 5. That's a team scoring at 3.2 per game and keeping things tidy.
Start, on the other hand, are the underdog I'd love to back, and I'll give them credit where it's due. Their last five games have seen them win three, lose two, and they've scored 12 goals in that stretch. They beat Brann 2–1 at home on 2 October, and they've been scoring freely in cup ties – 5–1 at Raufoss and 3–2 at Vindbjart. Their xG for is 2.4 per game, which means they're creating chances. But here's the rub: their away record over 20 games is 5 wins, 2 draws and 13 losses. They've conceded 2.4 goals per game on the road and managed just one clean sheet in those 20 trips. That's a lot of holes to plug when you're visiting a side that scores 2.2 at home.
The head-to-head adds another layer. The only meeting within the last 12 months was a 1–1 draw at Start's ground in April. Before that, the record goes back a decade, and Molde have won four of those seven meetings, drawn three, and Start have never won. At Molde's ground specifically, the older meetings saw scores of 5–0 and 3–1. I'll be clear: those older games are historical and don't tell us what's happening now, but they do paint a picture of a fixture where the home side has traditionally had the upper hand.
Now, the counter-argument for Start – and I mean this with genuine affection for the little guy – is that football is football. The 0–3 loss to Sandefjord on 20 September came with a red card in the 56th minute, so that's not a fair measure of their quality. The 2–4 home defeat to Ham-Kam on 11 October was a tough one, but they were still scoring. And that 1–1 draw in April showed they can compete with Molde. If Start can keep their shape for 90 minutes and hit the counter, the 2.4 goals per game they've been producing suggests they've got the firepower to nick one.
But I have to be honest: the numbers don't give me a clear underdog angle here. Start's away record is genuinely poor, Molde's home form is strong, and the head-to-head leans heavily toward the home side. My gut says Start have a slim chance, but I can't honestly say the evidence supports a pick I'd be comfortable staking on. The other underdog angles – a draw, an under 2.5, or both teams failing to score – don't light up either, given that both teams' last five games have all gone over 2.5 goals.
Key Points:
- Molde's home record: 11W 3D 6L in 20 games, scoring 2.2 per game, conceding 1.2
- Start's away record: 5W 2D 13L in 20 games, conceding 2.4 per game, 1 clean sheet
- Recent head-to-head: 1–1 draw at Start's ground in April 2026; older meetings heavily favour Molde
- Both teams' last 5 games have all gone over 2.5 goals
- Start's 0–3 loss to Sandefjord included a red card, complicating that result
No Bet. The football simply doesn't give me a clear underdog angle here, and I'd rather sit this one out than stretch for a pick I can't honestly stand behind.
