Tennis Maths: Why Winning 55% of Points Wins You Most Matches
Roger Federer won around 54% of his points and 82% of his matches. Tennis scoring is an amplifier, and understanding it changes how you read every tennis price.
Read moreRoger Federer won around 54% of his points and 82% of his matches. Tennis scoring is an amplifier, and understanding it changes how you read every tennis price.
Read moreYour spreadsheet says you'd have made a fortune last season. Here's why it's probably lying, and the honest tests that separate a real edge from a beautiful accident.
Read moreTwo professional gamblers and a Cambridge physicist changed how English football buys players. Here's how their models work and what bettors can borrow.
Read moreAston Villa took 65 points on chances worth 51. Hot streaks cool, cold ones thaw, and the market doesn't always price it in. Here's how to spot a run that won't last.
Read moreHe's scored in four straight, so he's a cert for a fifth. Forty years of research says the hot hand is real, it's small, and punters pay far too much for it.
Read moreYour banker hits the woodwork twice and loses 1-0 to a bottom-three side. That is football working as designed, and it can be measured. Here is how luck compares across the major sports.
Read moreFifty-five winners from a hundred looks like genius, yet nearly one in five coin-flippers would match it. Here's how yield, sample size and survivorship bias separate skill from a lucky run.
Read moreSpain have just hit 2287, the highest World Football Elo rating ever. Here is the chess maths behind it, a worked Arsenal v Man City price and how to use Elo as a bettor.
Read moreFrom tackles to through balls, VAEP puts a value on every on-ball action. Here's how it works and how bettors can use it.
Read moreArsenal's Özil did 86% of the work on a goal that went down as Kolašinac's assist. Here is how Expected Threat spots the chance creators the stat sheet misses.
Read moreHow possession value models (VAEP, EPV, OBV, xT) credit the actions goals and assists miss, and what that means for your betting.
Read moreGoals aren't spread evenly across ninety minutes. Here's when they really arrive, why the late spike happens, and how to use goal timing in minute betting markets.
Read moreThink like a fund manager, not a punter with a hunch: spread your bets, size stakes with fractional Kelly and track the numbers that matter.
Read moreScorelines can lie, shot quality doesn't. Here's how expected goals can help you spot value in totals, BTTS, handicaps and match-result markets.
Read moreShots on target markets explained: what counts, how to work out a fair price and where the value hides, plus the traps that catch out even seasoned punters.
Read moreCorners happen far more often than goals, and the market gets far less attention. Our guide to reading the numbers, picking your moment and staking sensibly.
Read moreA practical guide to building a sports betting model, from Poisson and Elo to xG, value betting and honest backtesting.
Read moreWhy the smart angles sit either side of Over 2.5: how to pick matches for Over 1.5 and Under 3.5, use xG and Poisson, and stake sensibly.
Read morePoisson models, expected value and bankroll maths for correct score betting, plus an honest look at why this is one of football's hardest markets to beat.
Read moreBoth teams to score looks simple until you price it. Our guide covers the stats, the leagues, the strategies and the staking habits that keep you in the game.
Read moreHow bookmakers build football prices, from Poisson models and trader judgement to margins, live odds and the closing line.
Read moreSacked manager, new face, instant win? We look at the bounce, the regression-to-the-mean debate and what it means for your betting.
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